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Is America Now an OPEC+ Member?
On the heels of President Trump’s tour through the Middle East, we’re seeing a HUGE shift in the global energy landscape. You won’t want to miss the discussion from the Energy Realities team from Bulgaria, the UK, and Texas as we cover the trip that was a celebration and not a fist bump.
Stuart Turley, Irina Slav, Tammy Nemeth, and David Blackmon dig into the implications of a possible U.S.-OPEC+ relationship, energy diplomacy, the Syria pipeline question, turbine shortages, and why Canada and the UK might be getting energy policy all wrong.
Transcripts available on Substack.
Highlights of the Podcast
00:01 – Introduction
02:00 – The “New” U.S. Foreign Policy Doctrine
08:00 – A Seismic Shift: America’s Energy Diplomacy
14:00 – Syria, Sanctions & Pipelines
18:00 – Middle East Trading Bloc & U.S. Tech Influence
22:00 – Religious Realities vs. Business Idealism
27:00 – U.S. Joining OPEC+?
30:00 – Energy Demands of AI & Grid Limitations
32:50 – Gilbeault throws cold water on new pipeline, says we have enough already
35:41 – Bill to create ‘Britain’s Orsted’ GB Energy passes parliament
41:09 – Doug Sheridan: A Texas-Sized Circus omnibus the ERCOT Grid
43:37 – David Blackmon: House Republicans look to end some of Biden’s madness
45:57 – Despite surging power demand, gas-fired power faces manufacturing constraints that could limit near-term growth
47:33 – Can Britain’s neighbors help it keep the lights on?
52:12 – The UK’s Green Energy Transition Faces Critical Slowdown Amid Growing
53:45 – Republicans have one last chance to kill the “Green New Scam” subsudies forever
55:00 – Global Turbine Shortages & GE Vernova Monopoly
57:00 – Final Thoughts
Is America Now an OPEC+ Member?
Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Stuart Turley [00:00:12] Hello everybody, welcome to the Energy Realities Podcast. My name’s Stu Turley, president of the Sandstone Group. Today is Monday, May 19th, and we’ve got an out. Standing lineup today. We have Irina Slav from Bulgaria, and she is just having a glorious day. In fact, she’s got my favorite t-shirt on. It says sanctions don’t work as intended. How are you today, Irina?
Irina Slav [00:00:41] I’m great. Thank you. It’s springtime. Everything is good for now.
Stuart Turley [00:00:46] We need to have that shirt put out on as merch for people to buy, because that is a quote I use almost daily because sanctions don’t work as intended.
Irina Slav [00:00:58] Yeah
Stuart Turley [00:01:00] All right, we also have Tammy Nemeth. She is the head cabano over there at The Nemeth Report and the great Substack. How are you today over in the UK, I believe?
Tammy Nemeth [00:01:13] I’m doing well. Thank you so much, Stu. Yeah, it’s a spring here, really dry and Compared to last year where everything was wet all the time, this is quite a shock, so. We’ll see what happens in the next little while.
Stuart Turley [00:01:26] I’ll tell you, I got to love a country that is cloud seeding and then putting out solar panels. Yeah, which one happens? I don’t know. Are you going to block the sun, you know, according to Bill Gates, or are you going to put out more solar panels? You got a question. Good question. And then we have the David Blackmon, I mean, not just a David Blackmon, we have the DavidBlackmon, the head of the energy absurdities realities over there. With a Substack at Blackmon.substack.com. How are you today? Oh, mighty David.
David Blackmon [00:01:58] I am just lovely, just happy. Happy to be in Texas, it’s such a beautiful day.
Stuart Turley [00:02:04] Oh, uh, you gotta love that. I’ll tell you what, this is an interesting question and topic today because I think the world is changing. And I think there was one of the authors over at oil price.com had a wonderful story out there and I can’t remember which author it was. But she said, is the bromance on between the United States oil companies and the middle Eastern oil companies. We have EQT doing a lot of work now over there. And it’s not part of the deal trip that president Trump took last week. And so we now have to wonder, is OPEC… Plus now going to have the United States as a member. And we’re going to throw this out to the team here is a question. Uh, Tammy, what are your thoughts of the Trump? Tour last week.
Tammy Nemeth [00:03:02] I thought it was really… Fascinating to see. This kind of shift in the geopolitics, at least be confirmed. People have been talking about how Trump has. Sort of. Reconfigured. What America’s. Role is in the world or what he would like America’s role to be in the world. And this was just a real. Clear confirmation of what those changes are. So. Basically. No more interventionism telling countries what to do and follow a certain democratic principles or whatever. One of the comments he made is that. Not everything is about democracy. And it’s. I’m not quite, there’s a lot to unpack with that statement, and there’s been a lot of criticisms about. What it means to be a democratic state? Is it just about voting? Are there other things that need to be involved with it? And Is it appropriate for Western countries, particularly the United States or Europe, to go around and tell other countries? What to do, how to have their economies, who they ought to trade with, all these different kinds of stuff. And so he’s basically saying, no, we’re not going to do that anymore. And Um which is kind of was the Chinese approach, especially with the Belt and Road Initiative, where the Chinese would come in and say, we’ll help build your infrastructure. We really don’t care what you’re doing in your country. We’re just going to help you build stuff. And so there was a hint there that this is going to be sort of America’s approach in the future. No. As a non-American, I’m really curious to hear what Dave and Stu have to say from their perspective as Americans, and I’m super curious to see what Irina thinks. Um, about these changes that seem to be quite significant, not just for energy. But for how the The globe. Is developing into these different trading blocks.
Stuart Turley [00:05:10] Irina, what do you think?
Irina Slav [00:05:12] Should I go first? Well, first of all, thank you, Tammy, for laying it out so succinctly and very, very… Nicely. I think this could be a seismic shift in American foreign policy and it’s a very welcome shift from my perspective. Because as you said, for decades, especially the last 30 years… US foreign policy and Western European foreign policy has been about intervening and telling countries what to do and how to do it Amazingly, the how and what. Has always been. Perhaps. Coincidentally… Done so it can benefit Western European interests and US interests. Rather than interest of the country’s concerns. And this has led to a sort of backlash. Especially since 2022 with the whole Russia-Ukraine affair and all the sanctions and the talk about de-dollarization. I think that we have a rare instance. Of the U.S. Doing on the Trump. What the Chinese have been doing, namely learning from other countries’ mistakes. And this is really good news. Because in Europe… We have No sign of, you know, those at the top learning from their own mistakes, let alone someone else’s. And I think what Trump is doing is a positive thing for the world. Is being more rational about that statement on democracy. What is democracy? If we look at Europe right now, at the European Union, do we actually have a democracy? No, we don’t. In the U.S. Under Biden. Do you guys have actual democracy?
Stuart Turley [00:07:04] Nope!
Irina Slav [00:07:06] Yeah, it wasn’t just Biden So. I think something important… Might be happening. I mean, Trump even had some… Words of criticism towards The Netanyahu government. Shocking
Stuart Turley [00:07:27] All right, boy, you bring up some fantastic points, Irina. In fact, The change on this trip to Syria is probably one of the biggest that’s out there. And I applaud. Uh, president Trump for lifting the sanctions. Based off of the leadership change. We didn’t, we don’t need the U S government doing sub covert operations in countries to change regimes. We need to have a real business. Uh, meeting and have trade partners as opposed to, uh, having the CIA and the USA ID. Corrupt things going around the business. That’s just my personal opinion. But David, what do you think?
David Blackmon [00:08:14] Well, it’s going to be a hard habit for the United States to break. The CIA has been fomenting and executing coup d’etats and Other countries since the early 1950s and, um, has probably done it in a dozen or more different countries and probably had an influence in the Romanian election. Which was just completed. Uh… And so, you know, that’s a… It’s going to take a lot of willpower and uh… Uh… Hard uh… Hard-headed Governance run by the Republicans, Trump and his appointees. To break that habit by the CIA. Um, the trip last week. Was. You know, it was a bit of a new… American Doctrine. As if it. And in terms of. Relations with the Middle East. Our media here is so vacant and clueless. They completely missed the point because they were too busy reporting about. The Qatari jet gift to the Pentagon and trying to spend that against Trump. So they’ve largely missed the point, but this was a, the announcement of a completely. The sea change in american policy towards countries in the Middle East and its ways of engaging with these countries. The most crucial passage in the president’s speech in Riyadh. Was the passage in which he completely condemned the neoconservative. Policies of the past, the nation building that we tried to engage in. Under George W. Bush and, uh, the Dick Cheney’s and the Donald Rumsfeld’s. Of the world. And Those people are dead, they’re gone from the Republican Party now. There’s zero. They have zero influence on Republican party policy and as long as the Republican party. Is in control of the national government here, we’re not going to go back to that. It’s You know, it’s, it say it, it all revolves around energy too. It all interrelates with the Trump energy policy. Just in terms of The president and his people understand that there’s not going to be a big drilling boom. Here in the United States and that all of our shale plays have peaked. But they still want to have more oil. Produced globally. Uh… To get look all prices lower down to the fifty dollar range that’s that’s their target And I think everyone’s aware of that at this point. And so a lot of this has to do. With trying to do, trying to use American technology and skillsets and investments. To spur additional drilling in the Middle East, in the UAE and Qatar. And our cutter. And the Saudi Arabia. And the other big oil producing countries in the Middle East region. It’s the same thing. With, with Trump’s approach to Iran. You know, Trump doesn’t want to have a war with Iran. He wants to. Negotiate a peace there. That will enable Iran to continue to put crude oil onto the global market. To help control all prices. And so… General philosophy boils down to America is going to build, baby build our infrastructure, develop our technology, export it overseas. And encourage drilling in these other countries. So that you still get the same result. More oil on the market, lower oil prices. Cost savings and energy to the American people. To spur economic growth and get us to the 3%. Of economic growth. That our Treasury Secretary believes is. Kind of the magic bullet number. That’ll result in… Enough revenue flowing into the federal government to start drawing down on the federal debt. I mean, it’s all very complex and it all revolves around energy. And you know, I mean, I think it gives us some cause and I think all of y’all have said it. We have a reason to be optimistic now. About America’s relationships with these countries. I’m sure they were all out that I think one of the reasons why we saw all the pageantry in the red carpet rollout and the incredible reception the president got. In these countries because they’re sick as of Biden and his people. As we all are. And having to deal. With these deep state hacks. That have been focused on interfering in their national affairs. Instead of having a productive relationship with these countries. That are economic powerhouses in their own right. I mean, it’s something we as Americans have. I think largely failed to see. In this region, in these countries, in this region. Is that yes, there’s all these conflicts. Uh… Revolving around religion that happened there But these countries are economic powerhouses and it would be a really smart thing. For our country to have a positive. Commercial and economic relationship. With those countries, and I think. Hopefully he’ll be successful in bringing that about, but he’s going to have to fight against. All these. Deep state hacks. The Atlantic Council and. All these internationalist organizations like the World Economic. Forum and even the United Nations. Will be opposed to allowing this. To come to fruition. Because. The constant conflict in the Middle East benefits all of those organizations. And their real goals of having a global… Government at the end of the day. I’m optimistic, I’ve… I’m proud. Frankly, that’s the. The president and his people chose to take this approach last week. I wish them all the success in the world.
Tammy Nemeth [00:14:13] Can I add something there that that was a really great description of. Of that position. But I’m wondering about… The natural gas pipelines. That they want to run through Syria. And… Qatar and Saudi Arabia have been real big backers of the one pipeline. Which was. Which was Qatar’s originally, and then it was supposed to go through. Syria, Jordan, and then through Turkey and into the European Union. As a sort of counter to Russian natural gas. And then Iran had its own pipeline that it wanted to run through Syria and Turkey. And into the EU. And so what do you all think about? What Trump said there. Making peace with Syria, stopping the sanctions or whatever. Do you think it’s about? The pipeline.
Stuart Turley [00:15:12] Yes.
David Blackmon [00:15:13] Certainly.
Stuart Turley [00:15:14] Why did this? Why does this
Irina Slav [00:15:19] getting sorry, Qatari gas to Europe when he can get American gas to
Stuart Turley [00:15:27] Priced different Russian natural gas is ballpark $6. Ballpark LNG price to EU is ballpark $15.
Irina Slav [00:15:36] I know, but you want to export more American gas to Europe, not more Qatari gas, even though American companies are involved in…
Stuart Turley [00:15:46] Why did the CIA take down Syria? I mean now that That was an amazing thing President Trump just did is lifting the sanctions to help the country out because of a leader that had a questionable past, even his words. But he was sincere. Looking forward to a new thing. You know, I, it’s about, and Tammy, your point is brilliant. It’s about. The pipelines.
David Blackmon [00:16:19] And to Irina’s point, which I think is a very strong point. I think American LNG companies, exporters, excuse me. Are confident that there’s plenty of market. To go around for their product in Asia. Africa and other countries around the world that need the natural gas. And so they’re happy to export it. To Europe, but let’s And we should remember that almost all those cargos. Before Putin invaded Ukraine, we’re going to Asia. And uh… You know, they’re more than happy to export their product to Asia and Africa and other. Parts of the world that need the gas. If these pipelines can feed the European market.
Irina Slav [00:17:02] Is the current Syrian government reliable enough? When you said he has a questionable past that is, as I said, really putting it mildly. You know, these sorts of… People Uh… Are not known for their reliability and their loyalty to foreign partners or anyone. Except that ideology so. Wouldn’t that be a risky move? But that’s a good point. We don’t know what’s going to happen.
David Blackmon [00:17:37] Yeah, but remember how he put it. He said he’s giving them a chance to show they can be trusted.
Irina Slav [00:17:43] That’s, that’s.
David Blackmon [00:17:46] And so he is giving them that chance. So it’s an olive branch. I doubt he really expects them. To follow through in a way that is in good faith. And uh… I suspect. A year from now, we’ll be sitting and seeing. That was probably an olive branch that failed.
Stuart Turley [00:18:10] It’s better to give it It’s better to give an olive branch and worry and work towards peace. Let me go ahead and play this one minute video from Steve Wyckoff on the Tucker Carlson show. And I think. That.
David Blackmon [00:18:24] Thank you, Christian.
Stuart Turley [00:18:26] Thank you, Christian. And, and I really. I really… Tammy, you brought up some great point and David and, and Irina. I think we’re seeing a trading block change. Off of this this trip And… We’re going to see Russia. India. Pakistan, I think they’re gonna end that. Little skirmish there. Asia, South Korea, Japan, all this trading block is coming in. And Steve Wyckoff hit something that I’m over here going. Yeah! He heard it from me. No, I’m just kidding. But here’s what here’s. You know, it’s my ego getting in the way here. Well, hey, I’ve been saying that. Here we go. This is off the tuck.
Video Speaker Steve Wyckoff [00:19:10] Undervalued opportunities. If we get peace and stability throughout the region. If we solve Iran. And you can finance in that market, the Israelis are brilliant. Uh… From a technological standpoint they’ve got a huge a technological base there. They’re in AI, robotics, blockchain. That’s where the UAE is today. That’s Saudi Arabia is today, that’s where Qatar is today Can you imagine all these countries working collaboratively together? And creating that type of market, it could be much bigger than Europe. Europe is dysfunctional. Imagine if they became functional. And everybody’s a business guy there. One more thing as a as a condition in that region. You have young. Leadership. You have young leadership in MBS. You have relatively young leadership in the UAE. You have relatively young leadership, new leadership in Qatar. People who don’t have the old sensibilities. People who… Want to have, want to do business, who realizes… Like Trump’s way. Is people vote their pocketbook, right? So he wants to bring the bacon home to the United States. I think everybody’s bought into that over in the GCC.
Video Speaker 1 [00:20:24] I mean, we’re reverting to like human nature. People want stability and prosperity for sure.
David Blackmon [00:20:31] Anyway, one thing to want is it’s another thing to get it right and maintain it. That’s the hard part.
Irina Slav [00:20:36] Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:20:38] I think if we get rid of it…
Tammy Nemeth [00:20:40] There’s the complexity in the middle Sorry, sorry, go ahead, Stu.
Stuart Turley [00:20:44] If we get rid of the if we get rid of UN. And the CIA, the world will be a safer place. Just a personal opinion. Sorry, Tammy. I did not mean to.
Tammy Nemeth [00:20:54] I would say that the Middle East has a lot of complexity with the religious component and you know, you can focus on the business case or whatever. But in Iran? The business case was what the shaw was pushing. And was rejected by the religious people who decided. Or at least were expressing their view that that was corrupting the Iranian people. And so. They have to be really careful because one of the reasons why there was this proliferation of mosques around the world was that the Saudis were being accused by the religious leaders of being corrupted from all the oil wealth and that they weren’t following… The religious precepts that they were supposed to as the leaders of the people. And one of the ways that that they were able to sort of. Game somewhat. Approval from the religious leaders was to spread these mosques around all over the world. So the religious component is really significant and I don’t think it should be. Sort of said, well, it’s just another thing to consider with the business models because With Iran and Israel. Yeah, Israel’s got great tech and they’re really advanced in biomedicine and everything But the Iranian religious leaders will not. Deal with Israel.
Irina Slav [00:22:18] Well, Israel won’t deal with Iran either.
Tammy Nemeth [00:22:21] Exactly, it works both ways, right? And so when you have these religious differences, you can have the best business case in the world. And they’re still going to matter.
David Blackmon [00:22:32] Yeah, I found that part of Wittkopf’s comments pretty naive, but I’m sure he knows they’re naive, right? He sees. Delivering a public message that that the administration wants delivered Uh. But I don’t think that means he actually believes. Israel and Iran are gonna have a a strong economic relationship anytime in the near future.
Stuart Turley [00:22:54] No, but Tammy and I can’t remember if it was Tammy or Irina brought up a great point. And that is president Trump stood up to Netanyahu. And that is the first time that a American president stood up against Israel as he should. Because Netanyahu was not invited on some of these trips, nor is Netanyah invited in on the ending of the Ukraine. Uh, Russian war talks because, uh, he wants something else out of this. And president Trump is standing up for. United States first, which is as he should, unlike the rest of our Congress that has been bought off by Israel.
Irina Slav [00:23:35] Yeah, but it ties in with what Witkowski said. He was clearly describing an ideal. Case scenario which is not going to happen in the next two generations at least I believe. But who knows in a hundred years. You know, I think that the main message about making this region more peaceful. It could start taking care of the radical religious factions because radicalisation is not a product of… You know, good luck. For the most part. It’s a drug. Uh, for… You know, serious. Living crisis, to put it this way. But, uh… Yeah, maybe they can get them to all work together. But they can get them to stop fighting all the time. Gradually.
David Blackmon [00:24:32] I think that’s the short-term goal for sure. Long term, you’re right. I mean, I think there is a long term. Process it potentially, but you got to start somewhere. And this is. Where they have to start and. But, you know, I think that what they. Her optimistic they can do in the near term. Is build these. Commercial, economic, energy relationships. With those three countries he visited. I think the administration views that. As a near term. Success story, likely success story. That they’ll be able to look at. At the end of this term and point two is a big success. The rest of it. Is aspirational, you know, the. The opening to Syria, the opening to Iran, the negotiations. With Iran and trying to avoid war there. Obviously, you want to try to avoid that. Trump wasn’t elected to go to war with anyone. I mean, his base is very anti-interventionist base. So. I mean, I think they all understand that you. You have to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon. One way or another, they just hope. It can be the peaceful way. Rather than the military. Hi kitty That’s a beautiful cat.
Tammy Nemeth [00:25:59] Those are great points, David, because one of the things that Trump emphasized in his speech there was that, yes, we’re not going to intervene and tell countries what to do. But if you threaten America… If there’s any legitimate sort of concern, we will come down with a hammer. And then he was going on about how great the military is and all that kind of thing. Because I think a lot of the concern was that If you’re showing your hand that all you want to be the peacemaker, that you don’t want wars. Then that’s a really good way for bad actors to take advantage of you. Because when you come for a deal, they’re like, oh, OK, well. You don’t want to cause a war or you don’t want to be in a war. And so then that can affect how the negotiations go or or what actions other other nations take. So I thought that was. Interesting or. Appropriate for him to be emphasizing that. I don’t want to go to war, but if you press me… The, you know, the hammer will come down.
Stuart Turley [00:27:00] Yeah, president poopy pants saying don’t. Does not work. In scaring people, no.
Tammy Nemeth [00:27:08] It’s a red line Um… So, the other thing that I think is significant with respect to him wanting this development and pushing the natural gas, probably, and more energy production from the Middle East and I love Stu’s. Title for today is the U.S. Part of OPEC Plus Now. Um, maybe.
Tammy Nemeth [00:27:30] Because I’m thinking the IEA just produced a report I think on Thursday or Friday last week. Where they were talking about the energy requirements for AI and data centers. And how at least 50% of it will have to be LNG. It’ll have to come from natural gas. And the other 50% apparently is going to come from renewables. Mark Mills had a really great Yeah, exactly. Mark Mills had a really great assessment of it on RealClear. I think it was on Friday or Saturday. And I highly recommend people taking a look at that. But, so the IEA now, it was like full booster for energy transition and everything. And now it’s like the reality is sitting in, setting in. Oh, AI and data centers are gonna need energy and it’s gonna have to be reliable. It’s going to have to be, you know, reasonably priced and so on. Um So maybe part of this is also what these new energy requirements are and they’re going to need more supply even as the EU says they’re going to be net zero and all that. Maybe nuclear can fill a portion of it. That’s longer term. In the short to medium term. They’re going to need power like yesterday. And where are you going to get it from? It’s certainly not going to be from wind solar batteries. It’s going to have to be. Natural gas. But then Um which I’m sure Irene will talk about. I think it was one of your stories. About, um… There’s just not enough turbines.
Irina Slav [00:29:04] Yeah, it’s hilarious!
David Blackmon [00:29:08] It’s a big problem. I mean, it’s a huge problem.
Stuart Turley [00:29:13] Go ahead, Stu. The United States is. Yeah, the United States has three grid systems. Is very. Did I just lock up?
David Blackmon [00:29:23] Oh,.
Stuart Turley [00:29:24] I think I just locked up.
Stuart Turley [00:29:27] Okay, the United States has three. Three grid systems and ERCOT. Is good for a couple years. But in the data center world, if you do not have natural gas plans, you can look at a map and see where the pipelines are. You can also see where you want to build an AI data center in the United States, and it is not in. Hawaii California, New York, New Jersey, Delaware. Uh, or a couple other states and by the way, those are all democratically run. Green energy policy and then if you do not have a Turbine to Irena’s point. If you don’t have an arena, if you don t have a turbine bought in the United States, Now… You’re five years away from getting it.
David Blackmon [00:30:26] It’s a problem.
Tammy Nemeth [00:30:28] Oh, so.
Stuart Turley [00:30:28] Big one
Tammy Nemeth [00:30:29] I just- I was looking at my notes here and I jotted down when David was talking about. You know, talking about developing out the businesses in the Middle East and in Saudi Arabia and so on. What this means for investment for. Developing more oil and gas resources. It was like last year or the year before where the head of Saudi Aramco and some of the other big. Middle East producing companies. We’re saying. We’re, we really need more investment here. We need more. In new drilling. To develop out the field some more and everything else and and they were really berating. Um… The various institutional investors and whatnot for not putting enough money in. In order to sustain the amount of production. Even at current levels, let alone what’s going to be required in the future. So I would just. Um, support what David was saying, that this is really another pitch for encouraging investment. More investment in oil and gas development in the Middle East as well as America and other more stable regions.
David Blackmon [00:31:41] Drill, baby, drill, baby.
Tammy Nemeth [00:31:44] And investing, investing in it.
Stuart Turley [00:31:48] We’re four trillion dollars short. If demand curves remain solid. That’s assuming that supply and demand is a pricing mechanism that’s still used. But if supply and demand were a formula that was even followed in oil pricing anymore. We need $4 trillion just to meet normal decline curves. We don’t have that investment going on.
Stuart Turley [00:32:16] So that means oil prices are going to go up. When is depending on how much investment versus how much supply and demand. And manipulation of the market goes on. Is that about time for stories?
David Blackmon [00:32:34] Yes.
Stuart Turley [00:32:37] Let’s go to Tammy.
Tammy Nemeth [00:32:40] Okay, so in Canada last week, Mark Carney announced his new cabinet. And Stephen Gilbeault, the former Greenpeace activist who used to be the minister for environment. Is now he’s been moved to a new portfolio so now he is the minister of Canadian identity, we have, I guess we have to have an American. A minister for that. And heritage and culture, whatever. But then they asked him about other stuff and he said and this is the the title of the um of the national post article Stephen Gilbeault throws cold water on new pipeline, says we have enough already. When he was interviewed, he said, look. The they built Trans Mountain. And it’s only running at 40% capacity, which was a lie. And so here they’ve got all this capacity. And the IEA says demand is going to peak next year, or in 2029, so we really don’t need anymore and stop talking about pipelines. And what bothers me is that politicians are allowed to put out disinformation and misinformation like that while they want to go after regular people. For pointing things out. Because a simple Google search. From the Trans Mountain Reports can tell you. That they operated 77% capacity. That they… Where they’re short is in their short market because they have a short-term capacity that they put in there for emergency shipments or whatever. And it’s underserved because they charge twice as much as the other pipeline. So until they get their prices under control, no one’s gonna want to use it. So that’s the stupidity in Canada. The cabinet is pretty much the same as the old one. With even more radicals in place. Um… Tom Mumford says, don’t they think where the pipelines go matter? No! I don’t care! Canada had all these different proposals, a lot of them, I think it was… Either Enbridge or TC Energy had spent a billion, a billion dollars. Just to try to do the approvals process, only to have. The ministers say in the end, yeah, no, we’re not going to approve it. So after spending a billion dollars in the process, they were told no go. So then they’re wondering why companies aren’t putting proposals in. Why would you? Why would you win? There’s no guarantee you’re going to throw all this money in there for planning and and stakeholder engagement and indigenous consultation and whatnot and then in the end it’s up to cabinet to decide whether or not it gets approved. It’s stupid. Um So then the other stories, the Britain. Where they just passed a Bill to create ‘Britain’s Orsted’ GB Energy. And they’re spinning it to be this investment. Sort of utility that will fund a lot of this wind solar battery stuff. They’re they’re putting 8.3 billion of taxpayer money into a startup, a startup funding for GB Energy. But I think Catherine Porter or maybe some others had crunched some numbers and show it’s actually way more than 8.3 billion that will be. UNDER GB Energy’s purview to spend as they see fit. And of course, it’s It’s run by a bunch of activists. Who knows what’s going to happen with this money? It’ll be very interesting in the next little while. But what I find so amazing is that Britain apparently has a black hole in its finances. Can’t have farmers doing stuff or they have to go after taxing. The inheritance of farmers. But somehow they found $8.3 billion to put into GB Energy. Of course, but there’s a black.
David Blackmon [00:37:01] So this is the most amazing story of the week to me. Because what they’re saying is they want to create. I’m an Orsted is a company. That’s involved in all these big offshore wind developments. And, and every month or so their CEO. It has statements in the newspaper demanding more subsidies From some government or another United States, Britain. Wherever they’re operating. They always want more subsidies, which tells you what. It tells you this is a business model. That cannot exist without a constant injection. Of additional subsidies from governments. The goal here apparently in Britain is to create. A government entity. Modeled on Orsted which means the government company is going to be constantly demanding. More subsidies! From what, itself? From itself. It’s just, it’s stunning.
Irina Slav [00:38:00] Stay in it!
David Blackmon [00:38:02] I’m the taxpayer.
Tammy Nemeth [00:38:03] You will own it and pay for it!
David Blackmon [00:38:06] Just unbelievable. Unbelievable.
Stuart Turley [00:38:08] Wow.
Tammy Nemeth [00:38:10] Well, it’s what the Labor government said they were going to do it and given that they’re You know. They’re Fabian socialists.
Stuart Turley [00:38:21] You know, a by-product, Tammy, of your Canada story is, AI lovers the story on Britain’s Orsted, holy smokes, Batman, what great fun the UK gave my readers this weekend. Um The Canadian government doesn’t realize that the Trans Mountain pipeline is taking Canadian oil shales to the Asia market Who’s the loser in this formula? The United States because we held Canada captive at lower prices. Because they didn’t have a way to export their oil to the open market. So if you want to stick it to the United States, Canada, build a dang pipeline and ship your product out to the Asia market. And then really show that Trumpster. How to do business. Good grief, folks. You’re right. Uh, I’ll tell you, uh, Robert is on an absolute terror this morning. Um, you know, holy smokes, when does thermal power as a far it is to a windstorm. Good morning, Robert, and I love your sense of humor.
David Blackmon [00:39:31] I love this comment from Khaled, thanks Serena, happy to join this discussion. Find out that all participants are well understood what is going on in the Middle East. Finally, it is a matter of justice and equal respect, and I really appreciate that comment, Galed. Because that was a point I was trying to make and didn’t do it. As well as I would have liked to earlier. So thank you. For making that point.
Stuart Turley [00:39:56] David, we only hire the handicapped here. I’m totally handicapped today. That was a great point. And then this one as well.
David Blackmon [00:40:12] For the next Blood Sucking parasitic leech is discovered. It should be named Orsted.
Stuart Turley [00:40:15] I love that!
David Blackmon [00:40:16] Man, I wish I would have thought of that line.
Stuart Turley [00:40:21] And then we have Jeff that is the business model. I love it.
Tammy Nemeth [00:40:22] Yes, that’s bang on Jeff.
Stuart Turley [00:40:27] Okay, sorry, and Tammy, you have a great Substack.
Tammy Nemeth [00:40:32] Yeah, it’s TheNemethReport.substack.com. Um, come check it out. I’ve got something coming out this week about uh the council on foreign relations new energy realism institute so suddenly now the transition people are calling it energy realism they’ve stolen from us i guess We should be. Happy maybe.
David Blackmon [00:40:58] Yeah, I guess so.
Stuart Turley [00:41:01] Stealing the flattery, I think, is the new trade.
Tammy Nemeth [00:41:04] That’s what it is.
David Blackmon [00:41:06] Oh, so here’s my two. Doug Sheridan on the right. This second story is. Just glorious. Uh, he wrote it on his LinkedIn page. I want to give him a shout out. On that. It’s a Texas size circuit on the ERCOT grid. Uh, people will remember two years ago, the legislature created this, uh, 10 bit was initially a $5 billion subsidy fund for the building of new gas plants in Texas for additional base load that we desperately need. And, you know, the response to it was so overwhelming that they increased it to $10 billion. And now the latest news is that over half the proposed projects. That had been awarded a placement in that program have now. Been canceled. And so. We still may not get the natural gas. Uh, power generation that we need. And, and I would tell you people. At the IEA. That you’re a big piece of the problem with your stupid, ridiculous, everybody knows. Or have no validity forecast. For peak oil and peak natural gas demand. You’re the problem here because these companies. Go to lenders and say, I need X billion dollars to build this gas plant. And, and the lenders say, well, we just read the latest IEA report. It says we’re going to, you know, peak oil in five years. And so. Everybody knows that’s BS except the people running the damn banks. You’ve got to stop this. Propaganda. Okay. Because you’re killing. You’re killing investment in the right things. In our energy sector. Okay, that’s my rant. But thank you to Doug Sheridan for writing that story.
Stuart Turley [00:42:46] You bring up a fantastic point on the Texas ERCOT grid, and I could share my screen, but I’m afraid of my bandwidth. Texas is the only state in the country that has a balanced map of production of natural gas plants. Plan? In construction. And ready to go. You look at the map and there’s all of a sudden it’s like Holy smokes, Batman! California, New Jersey, Hawaii, all these states. Have a plan. That’s what I added to Doug Sheridan’s articles.
David Blackmon [00:43:20] Is that the point of Doug’s thesis is that some of those planned Aren’t gonna get built. And so. We’ve got to get back to. That plan. And that means the banks have to lend the money to build the plants. Um, second. House Republicans look to end some of Biden’s madness. This bill. Is the big, beautiful reconciliation bill that was passed out of the house budget committee last night. On a party line vote, because of course no Democrats want to vote for any kind of sane legislation. Um, and a big part of that is because the house Republicans are targeting some of the wind and solar subsidies. That were passed in the IRA. And the Wall Street Journal today. One of my formerly favorite, uh, energy writers in the mainstream media, Jennifer Hiller has a piece at the wall street journal. That’s just the biggest piece. A boosterism propaganda I’ve ever read in my life. And I’m sorry, Jennifer, I love you, but damn. That’s that’s not a good story. Um, anyway, so, but the Republicans are looking to end some of these subsidies, not all of them. But some of the most blatantly counterproductive and also not just related to renewable energy. But to the $7,500 electric vehicle credit too. So that’s all part of the spending bill. They’ll be phased in, the elimination will be phasing in over four years. And as it currently sits, so that’s what that story was.
Stuart Turley [00:44:49] And it’s despicable, David, that they’re looking to, why can’t they understand the rhinos in the political? World understand that they’re about to be primaried out. This is not a either or. This is a, if you’re a rhino, get ready. You are going to be thrown out.
David Blackmon [00:45:11] Oh, I’ll say one last thing about that. Last story. Is that the 45 V credit for hydrogen is also among those to be eliminated. Politics of that are going to be tough because It’s, you know, Exxon Mobil wants that. That credit to stay in place, not just. Green hydrogen people, but blue hydrogen people. Want that credit to continue to exist. The politics of that one, they’re going to be really tough.
Stuart Turley [00:45:40] And you have Energy Absurdities at Blackmon.Substack.com.
David Blackmon [00:45:45] That’s it. Blackmon.substack, come see me, folks.
Stuart Turley [00:45:50] We have.
Irina Slav [00:45:53] So we’ve been talking about. Gas-fired power plant. So, despite surging power demand, gas-fire power faces manufacturing constraints that could limit near-term growth. Basically. They can use the turbines fast enough. And Woodmark says here that… Uh, last year. Oh no, this year. The utilization rate of manufacturers of gas turbines is around 90%, which is a lot, which means… Potentially delays in new gas. Gas-fired generation capacity. And again, nobody. Thought about these big years. Everybody thought that wind and solar will do the job. Which they won because they can. It’s yet another lesson that we’re all learning the hard way. Yeah, and they try to insinuate that Gazmand won’t grow so strongly as it could. Because of wind and solar. You know, it’s… I’m quoting in Europe decarbonization goals are pushing unabated gas to the margins by 24 40 are you serious? Unabated gas
David Blackmon [00:47:20] Unabated gas.
Irina Slav [00:47:21] Unapaited gas, yeah. We can’t build them fast enough, but yeah, talk about unapaiting gas. And the other stories on something that Tammy has talked about a lot. Can Britain’s neighbors help it keep the lights on? The short answer. No, the long answer is… Hell no! And there’s a story… A recent occurrence from January when the UK experience. Uh a lull in wind So it was not producing. Enough and it had already closed its coal power plants. So there was no baseload to step in, so they had to raise imports from Denmark at more than twice. The price per megawatt hour. More than twice the market price, but Denmark had to get this electricity. From Germany. It exported less to Germany, so it could increase exports to the UK. And after relating this story, the FT author or authors. Are telling us that the increase in interconnectedness. And I actually see. Should increase resilience. No! It shouldn’t. It couldn’t. What is this? Energy, the best ways to produce it at home, but not from wind turbines. It’s… I’m getting a headache as I speak about it.
David Blackmon [00:48:53] You know, I’m old enough to remember when the financial times was respectable.
Irina Slav [00:48:57] Oh, yeah, yeah. Once upon a time. Yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:49:00] A long time ago.
Irina Slav [00:49:01] Yeah. Increasingly long time ago. But imagine this. What if Denmark had a lull in wind speeds as well. What if it’s biomass plant had not enough biomass because it was really cold and it had to satisfy domestic demand. What then? If the UK relied on Denmark, what happens then?
Stuart Turley [00:49:23] When is it that you can? The UK can just ship more biomass from the U.S. There’s no cost to it. There’s no use of fuel in a dry goods tanker going all the way across the pond.
Tammy Nemeth [00:49:38] My understanding though is that the U.K. Is also quite reliant on Norway for electricity and this has been one of the big things coming up in this year’s election in Norway. Because they have a labor government in charge there and they were gonna build more interconnections with with the UK and the people were like Whoa, whoa, whoa Every time they’re short our prices go up We invest all this money in our infrastructure. We were guaranteed a low price. And now suddenly every time they run short, we pay more. And so the people are all upset. And it’s an issue in, I think, the election in Norway since September. And so. Interestingly, the finance minister of Norway is the former head of NATO. Jan Stoltenberg. He’s a finance minister now. He’s the finance minister. HO PUR NORWEGIAN Yeah, so now they’ve put on hold this interconnect with the UK. And meanwhile the UK is like oh we’re just going to build more wind and then we’ll have these interconnectors to smooth things out but the people with the interconnectors who are providing that smoothing out energy are like well you know you’re kind of making it Expensive for everybody. So. Yeah, interesting times.
Stuart Turley [00:51:05] You know the old dad joke when you run up and pull the finger and somebody passes wind? That’s going to be the new handshake in the EU. Sorry. That’s the only way they’re going to get extra wind.
David Blackmon [00:51:20] That’d make a great party.
Stuart Turley [00:51:23] That was, that was awful. I am so sorry. I just ruined the whole podcast with that bad dad joke. All right, here we go. Here’s Irina, and Irina I love your Substack.
Irina Slav [00:51:33] Thank you. Thank you, Irina Slav on Energy. And I don’t know what I’m writing about next, but I will be writing something tomorrow. I tried to write. Every day or almost every day. There’s a lot to cover.
Stuart Turley [00:51:47] Oh, it is. And I highly recommend everybody reach out and subscribe. I’ll tell you, you can’t buy this. That was not a, Ed, he is not photogenic. And I love this art article. I actually took that article, and then… Did a grope. Uh, search on some of the facts and everything else in the UK, uh, electrical generation mix. And renewables account for 41% of the fossil fuels is 27, nuclear is 14. And then I went through and started analyzing out some of the other stuff on there. And this is an amazing story that is coming out from Katherine Porter, our guest. Uh, that was just on, she is from watt logic in this article in, um, Oh, shoot, what publication?
Tammy Nemeth [00:52:46] The telegraph, wasn’t it?
Stuart Turley [00:52:48] And she has some phenomenal information coming out. We have to give her a shout out. There are hidden costs, she analyzed the 10 levies that are actually added to the bills paid by household and businesses. That is no longer a conspiracy theory that renewable energy is cheap and affordable. She has hit it out of the park. And, uh, I invited her on my podcast and we need to have her back here. Because that story is absolutely rock solid and I’ve absolutely gone through the charts and her numbers and. It just makes my head. Ache in my heart ache for the. People in retirement on pensions trying to make their bills. And they just keep running down the stupid road. It is just absolutely amazing. And the Republicans have one last chance to kill the green new scam. I’ll tell you, in the United States… The Uh, if Yoda were sitting here and he would go. Corruption deep it is I mean, it is absolutely disgusting that we can’t stop. Um, that was actually a pretty good imitation. Yeah, that was really Uh, um, you know, we can’t stop corruption. And it is disgusting to me that we have rhinos that just can’t go. The dang thing. Now. Oh, we’re gonna phase it out gradually. No, you’re not huge mistake. It’s a huge mistake. And then the green energy transition. Is actually kind of funny because the green and there is no transition. It is absolutely hysterical. Uh, when you sit back and go through the, uh, entertainment value of the UK leadership, and that goes back to our earlier, I mean, you can’t buy that kind of a face when you look at that face, uh from milk, I mean, that’s not a meme.
Tammy Nemeth [00:54:58] He looks like a Wallace and Gromit character. That’s That’s what they mock him, he looks like one of the. Had a really great
Stuart Turley [00:55:13] Yeah, I love that. Do what?
David Blackmon [00:55:17] Is it possible in the near future to see a competitor to Baker Hughes? I think it’s actually GE Vernova. In manufacturing gas-fired turbines for LNG plants. Oh wait for Ellen Jeep. The number of orders around the world is huge. All are relying on… Only one company.
Stuart Turley [00:55:35] Great point.
David Blackmon [00:55:37] Well, for LNG plan.
Stuart Turley [00:55:43] I think he’s talking about the turbines. Um, and the other things.
David Blackmon [00:55:49] Well, G. Vernova makes the turbines for combined cycle natural gas. Power plants. So do Siemens. And Siemens does too, but yeah, gee, Vernova takes most of the orders in the United States. I’m not sure.
Irina Slav [00:56:04] The Chinese must be needing some.
David Blackmon [00:56:07] Well, I would assume China makes its own. I don’t know. They’ll know the answer to that. But it’s a great question. We don’t have enough manufacturers. Intelligent guest we have, hmm? Maybe we need a subsidy for that.
Stuart Turley [00:56:29] I think so. See that to me is not a subsidy, that’s an investment and you don’t need to do an investment in that because you would be getting your money back.
David Blackmon [00:56:39] Right. You’d be investing in something real that has an actual return on investment.
Stuart Turley [00:56:46] We’ve got three minutes.
Tammy Nemeth [00:56:51] Actually I have to run guys I’m sorry. Thanks so much for all the comments everybody. Thank you. I see you next week.
Irina Slav [00:56:59] Bye
Stuart Turley [00:57:00] Uh, Irina, what are your thoughts, uh, for this upcoming next week? And what do you think about today’s show?
Irina Slav [00:57:07] For what’s upcoming next week.
Stuart Turley [00:57:10] Whatever you think is going on
Irina Slav [00:57:13] Uh, I really don’t know. I am.
David Blackmon [00:57:17] I think Tammy operates the same way I do, yes.
Irina Slav [00:57:20] Right now I live day-to-day, Stu, because… There’s so much news coming in every day. A lot of it surprising, most of it not really. But I try to take it like a recovering addict, you know. One day at a time. To cope with it all.
Stuart Turley [00:57:39] I have never seen this kind of a news cycle. I am working, uh, 24 by seven, it seems like. And I’d like to give a shout out to all the people trying to hack my site. I’m still getting a hundred thousand people a day to this site. And about 7,000 denial to 10,000 denial of service attacks a day. And my. Server is absolutely getting hammered. And I’d like to give all of you not heads a shout out for trying to hack my stuff. Go away. Anyway, David, what are your last thoughts?
David Blackmon [00:58:13] I, I I’m sorry, Irina. I called you Tammy a minute ago. I operate on the same basis as our Irina. Every day is a new day for me. And so I get up in the morning, survey the headlines and decide what to write about then. I don’t know what’s coming up. The rest of the week for me, but I’ll figure it out.
Irina Slav [00:58:30] I’m sure someone will surprise us.
David Blackmon [00:58:32] Yes.
David Blackmon [00:58:34] Wait, I do know one thing that’s coming up. I I’m gonna be interviewing The great. Sage. David Ramsden Wood this morning will be live streaming it. At nine o’clock central time, eight o’ clock mountain time where David is. Be there or be square.
Stuart Turley [00:58:51] I love DRW. I’ve interviewed him maybe six, seven times and he is one cool cat.
Irina Slav [00:58:58] It’s really cool, yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:58:59] All right. Well, have fun. We’ll see you guys later.
Irina Slav [00:59:01] Have a great week.
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