Week Recap: Coal, BRICS, Tariffs & the Global Power Shift

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Weekly Daily Standup Top Stories

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

01:02 – The End of Coal Is Nowhere In Sight

02:37 – ‘BRICS is dead’ if it messes with dollar – Trump

06:25 – Why China is Winning the Nuclear Energy Race

08:37 – California Governor Newsom has positioned the state to be a national security risk for the entire USA

10:58 – Are President Trump’s Tariffs A Good Thing? And how does LNG play into his plan?

16:35 – Will OPEC Sit Back as Non-OPEC Oil Gains Ground?

18:04 – UK Government relaunches Net Zero Council 

19:49 – Trump’s Policy Deluge Is Causing Paralysis in the Oil Market

21:30 – Outro

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter

Stuart Turley: [00:00:11] Welcome to the Energy News Beat Daily Standup. This is the weekend edition. This is a recap of the week’s top stories. The staff will put together all of the top stories of the week. It has been a wild week. I mean, if you cannot get through a news cycle anymore, it is so much fun. We want to give a shout out to Reese Consulting for sponsoring the Daily Show. We are so proud to have them as a sponsor. If you’re in the oil and gas space, in the natural gas space, you need to get ahold of them. They understand natural gas in the United States. If you’ve got to get a load of LNG to Europe, you’ve got to get a load of oil somewhere. Give them a call. They’re the guys to do it. So anyway, have a great day and we’ll talk to you soon. Have a great one. [00:01:01][50.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:02] Hey, let’s start with the end of coal is nowhere in sight. You got to love a good story like this one. Retirement of coal power plants in the West has done nothing to reverse global coal demand. It’s all about China. And the article does a great job going through global operating coal power capacity has increased by 13 % in 2015. And then you take a look at that map, Michael NR. I’ve took it from the global power plants. Look at where all the global power plants are. South Africa, the United States, India and China. Holy smokes, Batman. Until China changes it, there’s going to be no reason to shut our coal plants down. [00:01:49][47.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:50] And I love the they’re all skewed towards the East Coast, which is an interesting, an interesting little note there. You notice the places like Texas and up and down the Midwest where we have a lot of oil and gas. There’s not that many coal plants going. So very interesting. Now, obviously we know in the East Coast, we do have the largest natural gas reserves, the United States, but then a lot of that natural gas is piped down to Texas to get refined. And then, you know, the East Coast ends up burning fuel oil and coal. So very interesting there. Yeah, not much is going to change. I mean, coal is is still right now, the base load power of choice, at least for the Now, obviously, if you’re talking about the data center boom, that’s not necessarily what they’re looking at. But it really is interesting to look at the disbursement of all these coal plants. [00:02:37][47.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:38] Bricks is dead if it messes with a dollar. That story also goes in with our LNG, because LNG is Trump’s ace in the hole for exports. The world is coming to the realization we’re now between these two stories, we are opening up tariffs, reciprocal tariffs across every country. And I love the way he did that. And like Canada has 200 % tariffs on our agricultural products. Okay, let’s start putting a 200 % on Canadian products. I’m okay with his thought process on these two articles, he’s going to be using and it’s Michael before you cringe and you start telling me to be quiet. It’s it is a negotiation point on how he does this thing. And this is how President Trump does things. LNG is going to be his ace in the hole as he goes through in the next two weeks to start really negotiating with President Trump. Zelensky is no longer even at the table, President Putin and President Trump, and now the EU is not even at the table. And so they’re going to get the end of the Ukraine war done. And you’re going to see trade wars really coming around in a positive way. So you take a look at BRICS. BRICS was really successful, Michael, you and I talked about this as well. And that is because we had weaponized the US dollar. [00:04:05][87.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:06] Yes, but and so my my only question is, is a tariff not weaponizing the dollar? [00:04:11][4.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:11] No, if they’re already tariffing us, they’re tariffing their dollar, their weaponized their dollars, and they’re not buying our material. So his is if you are already tariffing the United States, I’m going to put reciprocal tariffs back on. Why are all the tariffs one way? I’m all in baby. So you’re telling me that we should just lay down and let everybody tariff our stuff and never buy our stuff? [00:04:35][24.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:35] Well, I mean, we do have the largest GDP in the world. So something’s working, right? All I am pointing out is that the reason why BRICS was looking at an alternative currency was because of the United States weaponization of its status as the world’s reserve currency. And if we and if we want to keep it that way, that doesn’t mean you know, a good leader doesn’t just say, I’m the leader, suck it up, whatever I say goes. It’s not what a good leader does. A good leader works with its consortium of people to come up with a solution that benefits not just one, but all. So I’m not I’m so I think tariffs on some goods are okay. And I’m okay with I’m not against tariffs 100%. I’m not for a 100 % tariff. I agree with what President Putin said, not a Putin fan, but I agree with what he said. He condemned the US government, he said at the end of this, this little, the last paragraph here in the article, calling the dollar’s weaponization a big mistake that is driving nations to explore alternative, we shouldn’t be driving nations to explore alternative currencies, because that will be detrimental to us. And a 100 % tariff is not going to work when BRICS now has 36 % of the global GDP, almost 50 % of the world’s population and is exploring bringing other people in. So I think there’s a fine line we’ve got to walk here because we do not want BRICS to come out with another currency that would be detrimental to our economy. And anything we do that again, everything’s a fine line here. That’s all I’m saying. [00:06:00][84.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:01] I agree. And I think President Trump is teeing it up for negotiations. And that’s all it is people need to understand President Trump is negotiating and saying what drives the liberals nuts is the way he talked. And I think it’s kind of funny because he’s not going to end up with tariffs for everybody. He’s going to end up with negotiated things. I think it’s a great way to do it. [00:06:23][22.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:23] Art of the deal, baby. Art of the deal. [00:06:24][1.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:25] Why is China winning the nuclear energy race? This one is very interesting when you consider the top three bullet points are China has significantly increased its nuclear energy capacity in the past decade positioning itself to become the largest nuclear energy producer. It’s actively developing advanced nuclear technologies, such as a small modular reactors in thorium based fuel, such as the ones that Copenhagen Atomics, the cost and time to require new built reactors in China is substantially lower than the United States, giving a huge competitive advantage. At the same time, China has been rapidly building out its nuclear capacity. It’s also been other novel technologies. This is really important. We’ve got other great companies in the United States as too, but we have got to get out of the regulatory business of stopping nuclear. This is a quote from Liu Tezhong, a Chinese national new nuclear company. We continue to advance nuclear comprehensive cooperation with old friends such as Russia and France and expand in depth cooperation with new partners such as European countries. I’ll tell you, this is absolutely important. When you take a look at his next statement, we plan to establish a research and development center in Eastern Europe, the size and opportunity accelerated global innovation and resource flow reshuffling continuously to increase the participation of international scientific technology talents. This is where the United States is failing is that we are not exporting our nuclear great capacity. We’re not helping other people, other countries are reducing their carbon footprints, but yet we’re rather not interested in any of that. So this is something that if we really wanted to export technology and work on trading partners, I think exporting our nuclear reactors and fleet capabilities would make for long term business partners. I think it’d make great sense. [00:08:36][131.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:38] California Governor Newsom has positioned the state to be a national security risk for the entire USA. Holy smokes, Ronald, you’ve got it dead on right. California is home to nine international airports, 41 military airports, three of largest shipping ports in America, as well as more than 30 million registered vehicles, all of which cannot operate without imported foreign oil from other nations like Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Iraq, Colombia and Russia. Thus, California is a serious national security risk for America. This is a fabulous story from Ronald and I want to give him a hug. Newsom’s policies continue to force California, the fifth largest economy in the world, to be the only state and continuous America that imports most of its crude oil demand from foreign countries. That is energy hypocrisy, if you can imagine that. That dependence has increased imported crude over from from 5 % in 1992 to 60%. I’ll tell you what, the foreign countries that are making a lot of money off of Governor Newsom, maybe we need to have Doge take a look at how money’s flowing in this as this may be a very strong issue coming forward, because I believe Doge is also going to be rolling to the states as they get around and looking at accounts as well, because Doge is a legal entity and has rights to do So if they take any federal money, they are going to be open for audits. So this is gonna be pretty interesting to see how all this rolls around. One of the big things here, California uses 1 .45 million barrels of oil each day, with well over 520 million barrels per year for the aviation, gasoline and diesel fuels manufactured from crude oil, as well as the oil derivatives manufactured based on more than 6000 products in our society. Ronald Stein is actually one of the great energy thought leaders out there. And his link is in the article, which will be in the show notes there. [00:10:57][139.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:58] This only on the energy newsbeat substack. It is the energy newsbeat .substack .com our President Trump’s tariff a good thing? And how does LNG play into his plant pan? There’s a couple things that are going on. A the mainstream media is just saying tariffs are bad, and it’s going to raise our prices. That’s not necessarily true. Let’s go through some of this stuff. A the United States has got our goods and services being tariffed by the EU and other countries around the world. Let’s go through some of these trade deficits and who tariffs us. And then I’m going to bump into why is that important? First up around the corner is for 2024, the US goods and service trade deficit was $917 billion up $133 .5 billion 17 % up from 2023 $784 billion. Some of the countries are like Canada $45 billion deficit, Mexico $180 billion deficit, China $350 deficit, Japan $70 billion, Germany $90 billion. None of these countries are helping the US workers. France got a $20 billion, Malaysia $40 billion, Switzerland $15 billion. And now here’s a surplus. The Netherlands has a $75 billion exports $100 billion, but they import $25 billion. That’s in fuels and other things. Now, what does the EU tariff? Here’s an example. The EU has a standard tariff on 10 % on vehicle imports. This applies to passenger cars entering the 27 member block of the US and it’s well then contrast the US only tariffs 2 .5 % on EU cars. You don’t see any Ford Mustangs running around the EU. So I love what President Trump’s got going on here, but there’s a little bit more to it than that. Pharmaceuticals and medical 7 to 8 % machinery and electronics 2 to 4 % textile and apparel 11 to 12%. So this is I think President Trump is on to this. And when you take a look at the EU slap tariffs of $3 billion of US products, including motorcycles. All right, I think Harley Davidson needs to be cranking some out for some of them left nut people. Nevermind. Never. We’ll leave that one alone. How can President Trump offset the deficits with LNG? Entered Japan and he had a great meeting with the leader of Japan over there saying, Hey, I want me some of that LNG. But now let’s take a look at how much does the US actually export, how much can it export and how expensive is it going to be to grow that market? Currently, as of 2023, 11 .9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG was available and exported. The US can ballpark export at 100 % capacity, about 18 billion cubic feet per day. So we’ve got a little bit of runway, but on that max capacity, that’s like a nameplate on that chart. You got to have downtime for problems and everything else. You cannot count on that. So how much does it cost to actually build a plant? When you take some specifics, Cheniere Energy Sabane Pass LNG Tournament had its initial trains of 4 .5 MTPA cost about seven to eight billion per phase in mid 2010s. Venture Global Calais U Pass completed in 2022 came in about 4 .5 to 5 billion for 10 MTPA. I’ll tell you what, this means a lot that we’re going to need some really good investment from foreign countries into our LNG and President Trump is not afraid to ask for it. So when you take a look at it, I believe in President Trump. I like what I’m seeing here and I think that this is actually going to be phenomenal for the US country. I think it’s going to be the easiest thing for President Trump to lower the trade deficits using LNG because you’re going to have some higher hurdles when it’s just straight products being exported out to other countries. You can pay a little bit more for LNG and guarantee security. But President Trump, if you listen to this podcast, which probably don’t, but if you did, you need to make sure that you set your sights on the Jones Act and get rid of it and build up our ship building capabilities because without our own US flagged LNG carriers, we cannot do cradle to grave guarantees for our great allies. And Steve Reese was on the podcast and I absolutely love Steve Reese, one of the great energy leaders in the United States, who happens to also be a sponsor of the show. But he is very adamant and he has got one of the few secure lines for LNG coming from the United States to Germany and long term contracts. [00:16:34][336.4]

[00:16:36] Will OPEC sit back as non -OPEC oil gains ground? The US IEA, EIA administration forecast non -OPEC crude oil production to increase by 1 .8 million barrels per day this year. OPEC plus has maintained output cuts for three years, reducing global market share from 53 percent to 47 percent in global current inventories or sheet shrinking with OPEC stocks falling below the five year average. What we’re seeing also is that there has been a long term downplay in investment in exploration and production. And so that you’re going to see oil prices may dip for just a little bit if Russian sanctions are reduced, in my opinion. But you will see them continually around that, like I said, around that area, the 80 dollar range because it makes good business sense. You used to be able to make money at twenty dollar oil. In fact, my dad was a pilot for Schumacher and he would not do an oil deal unless he could do it for less than seven dollars. He knew that he could get seven dollar profitable oil. Tells you how long ago that was, but that’s not that way anymore. So you’ve got higher costs because of a supply chain and all of those kind of other issues. So I think that that we are not going to be seeing the forty dollar oil again. The UK government relaunches net zero council. You can’t buy this kind of stupid. The UK government is actually floundering so bad with their energy policies and doubling down on net zero. Net zero is not going to happen with our current technology, offshore wind, solar. None of it is going to happen. And so by them trying to add all this in the council co -chaired by energy secretary Ed Milbrand and cooperative group CEO Shrine. I don’t want to mispronounce your name and I apologize. Karruggy Hogg brings together leaders from some forms of the UK’s biggest businesses, charities and organizations such as trade unions and local authorities. Quite honestly, that sounds like money laundering to me, but that’s just me. I don’t know that by working in partnership, we can drive the investment innovation and industrial transformation to make the UK a clean energy superpower. You’re not going to make it a clean super energy power by relying on grid interconnects on intermittent wind and solar. It’s not going to happen. Before I go to the last story here, like to give a shout out to Reese Consulting, outstanding group of folks. They are a very knowledgeable in the United States and I highly recommend that you reach out to them. And if you’re in the natural gas space and you’re looking to put in a natural gas power plant or you’re looking for Bitcoin miner and you’re wanting stranded gas or you’re wanting to buy and sell oil and gas. These guys are the the tip of the spear, so to speak. [00:19:48][192.4]

[00:19:49] Trump’s policy deluge is causing parallel, parallel, parallel, parallel, I cannot even say as I’m laughing at this in the oil market. It is funny because President Trump, I can’t keep up with the entire news desk. Trump’s been his first weeks in office, rallying against OPEC, seeking an end of the war in Ukraine and threatening tariffs against some of the main crew suppliers in the US. All those could have major consequences. The oil market is showing signs of disorientation in the face of the sheer volume of new see stances. I don’t think we’re done yet. Buckle up and just get ready for some fun things. OPEC plus producer group continues to keep barrels off the market, which is as a twin effect of lowering supplies long enough to keep a floor on prices. We are still going to be seeing a $80, I believe an $80 price range for oil. And I believe that that is because there’s still not enough money, even though they may be holding back. There’s still not enough money invested in oil. And I believe demand once things get kind of outlined out, Trump’s policies become more widely accepted. We are actually going to see a huge, beautiful growth. And I don’t do a very good Putin imitation or a Trump imitation, but we’re going to have a beautiful global economy once all this gets nailed out. We’re going to have peace and we’re going to see a lot of large growth opportunity for businesses. [00:19:49][0.0]

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