Ukraine Walks a Tightrope on the U.S. Election

Days before a U.S presidential election with potentially colossal implications for Ukraine, the country’s leadership is focused on one thing: staying out of the race as much as possible.

“Any election in a country that supports Ukraine is important to us, because this can impact the level of support,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor in Ukraine’s Office of the President. “Of course, we do not interfere in the domestic political process; we don’t support either candidate.”

That delicate balancing act meant that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris during a visit to the United States in late September. The trip highlighted just how fraught stepping into American politics can be: Zelensky’s tour of an ammunition factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania—which produces artillery shells sent to Ukraine—was blasted by Republican representatives, furious that three Democrats and no Republicans took part in the visit.

But as Russian forces keep advancing in eastern Ukraine and Moscow deploys North Korean troops in the Kursk region, Kyiv fears that the next U.S. president, whoever they are, won’t increase support to a level that would allow the Ukrainian military to put Moscow back on the defensive.

“Unfortunately, we depend on the U.S.,” said Solomiia Bobrovska, an opposition member of the Ukrainian parliament. “The problem is that it will be difficult for us, no matter who is elected. If Trump is elected, Europe will have to do more, act more independently. But even if Harris becomes president, she will continue [President Joe] Biden’s policy of making slow decisions, and that’s not a solution for us.”

The United States has remained Ukraine’s main ally since Russia began its full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022. Washington has supported Kyiv to the tune of more than $100 billion total, disbursed through several separate aid packages. But frustration has steadily grown in Ukraine over Washington’s fears of escalation as well domestic U.S. disputes over the merits of support more broadly. Both contributed to long delays before the United States delivered advanced weapons systems and, earlier this year, approved a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. Washington has also so far refused to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory using Western weapons.

Zelensky’s U.S. visit was used to present Biden with Ukraine’s five-point “victory plan,” which called on the U.S. president—current or future—and other Western allies to authorize strikes on Russian territory using the long-range weapons they provide Ukraine. The blueprint also suggests that NATO provide Ukraine with a membership invitation. So far, Washington has remained mute all of those asks.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is feeling the impacts of the  presidential campaign. The Biden administration’s reluctance to announce new measures of support for the country has been interpreted by both Ukrainian analysts and officials as an attempt to avoid drawing flak from Republicans ahead of the election.

“It’s possible that the sitting president hasn’t said his last geopolitical word,” Podolyak said, reflecting a commonly held hope in Kyiv that Biden could, after the election, use the last months of his presidency to increase support to Ukraine.

What happens after that is clouded in uncertainty.

Trump’s long history of disparaging comments toward Ukraine in general and Zelensky in particular has raised concern among Ukrainians. So has Trump’s flattery of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “We continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky,” Trump told supporters during a campaign rally in North Carolina in late September. In May 2023, the former U.S. president also famously claimed that, if elected, he would end the war “in 24 hours.”

“We’re seeing a huge difference in rhetoric between Trump and Harris. And that includes a difference in how both candidates mention potential peace talks,” said Alyona Getmanchuk, a Kyiv-based foreign-policy analyst and the director of the New Europe Center, a think tank. “Harris follows Joe Biden’s line by saying that only Ukraine should be the one to decide when and how to initiate negotiations … while Trump made it clear he would be the one initiating such a deal.”

Perhaps surprisingly, Kyiv has remained publicly composed about the prospect of a Trump presidency, hoping that the former president’s unpredictability and ego-driven governing style could ultimately play in Ukraine’s favor, even as Ukrainians expect a newly elected Trump to immediately pressure Kyiv and Moscow to negotiate.

“There is also the hope among Ukrainian policymakers that, even if Trump was to make a deal with Putin, Putin would quickly violate that deal, and after that Ukraine would receive even more support from Trump,” Getmanchuk added. “But everyone understands that Trump isn’t suddenly going to fall in love with Ukraine if he is elected—we aren’t naive.”

Harris, by contrast, is seen as a more predictable and reliable figure. But she may not see support for Ukraine as a foreign-policy priority while the United States balances numerous other global challenges, including the crisis in the Middle East and competition with China.

Kyiv has argued in recent weeks that increased Western support is essential to put the country in a favorable military position that could, down the line, push Moscow to begin peace talks.

Ukraine’s military position has steadfastly deteriorated this year. After taking the stronghold of Vuhledar in southern Donbas in early October, Russian forces have moved nearly 9 kilometers (5.6 miles) north of the mining town. The advances are of near-unprecedented speed since the Russian military was forced to retreat from the Kyiv region in early 2022—and have highlighted Ukrainian forces’ exhaustion in that part of the front line. Across the country, Ukrainians are also bracing for new strikes against energy infrastructure that could trigger long power cuts.

“I’m really worried about the winter,” said Bobrovska, the Ukrainian legislator. “And I’m worried that our allies are waiting for the moment where we can’t fight any more to say, ‘we did everything we could to support you—now you should go negotiate on Russia’s terms.’”