[[{“value”:”
ENB Pub Note: The following article, written by RFE/RL staff, presents interesting points about the United States’ recognition of Crimea and its shift in Ukraine policies. I have several interviews lined up to cover this coming out soon. Is the fear of losing elections enough in the EU to continue down the road of high energy prices and destructive policies? Or will they look for long-term LNG contracts over pipelines? Energy security is defined by those who can guarantee delivery at a low cost. And the current path the UK and the EU are following is set for total deindustrialization and fiscal collapse.
There is sufficient evidence that Zelensky may have already sold or committed to the UK and the EU the critical or rare earth minerals that President Trump was seeking as a guarantee. Did President Trump know that Zelensky sold out Ukraine before the meetings? That would explain a lot if he did.
The Trump team still does not understand the motivation of President Putin, and will continue to be a stumbling block in the path to peace for the Ukraine/Russia war. Secretary Rubio’s comments this week, indicating that “this is not the United States’ war and we are only going to wait for a few more days,” are concerning, as they suggest that the necessary information to end the war is still lacking.
- High-level peace talks aimed at resolving the Russia-Ukraine war are facing major obstacles, including the withdrawal of key officials and disagreements over recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
- Various proposals are being considered, such as potential European troop deployment, the removal of NATO membership for Ukraine, and US involvement in Ukraine’s nuclear and mineral resources, all of which are met with varying degrees of support and opposition.
- Despite ongoing negotiations and cease-fire attempts, the conflict continues with both sides violating agreements, and the possibility of a lasting resolution remains uncertain as Russia maintains its demands and Ukraine asserts its territorial integrity.
- An Easter truce that wasn’t. The United States threatening to walk away from peace talks. Washington considering recognizing Russian control over Ukraine’s Crimea. Russia and Ukraine ramping up new spring offensives. The Kremlin signaling no let-up in its 38-month-old invasion of its neighbor.
Talks scheduled for April 23 in London to try and resolve Russia’s 38-month war on Ukraine were already facing serious headwinds.
Now the most senior officials scheduled to attend — US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, reportedly British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, and others — are pulling out, effectively downgrading the meeting and casting a major pall over ongoing peace efforts.
And the Ukraine war continues full throttle, despite US President Donald Trump’s vow to end it within 24 hours of taking office, with few indications that resolution is any closer.
“It seems to me that the war has reached a dead end,” Dmitry Oreshkin, a Russian political scientist, told Current Time. “It’s clear that Russia’s tempo of advancement is decreasing from month to month, and there’s no reason to expect that it will suddenly increase. So one way or another, we will have to come to an agreement.”
Crimea Is Ukraine?
After meetings last week in Paris that were attended by Rubio, US officials reportedly presented Ukrainian negotiators with a proposal that would result in Washington recognizing Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.
It’s unclear how committed the White House is to the idea, which was reported by The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and CNN. If adopted, it would be a jarring departure from longstanding US policy, and would clash with Congress, which has passed legislation opposing any such move.
It would be extraordinarily difficult for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well. Ukrainians continue to overwhelmingly consider the Black Sea peninsula to be theirs, and only a tiny handful of countries have endorsed Moscow’s claim to it.
With a possible election looming, Zelenskyy acceding to Russia’s claim would potentially be electoral suicide.
“Ukraine will not recognize the occupation of Crimea,” he told reporters in Kyiv on April 22. “It’s our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine, there is nothing to discuss here.”
Aside from Crimea, Russia has claimed to have annexed four other regions that are partially occupied by Russian troops: Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk, and Luhansk.
A 30-day cease-fire proposal that Moscow and Kyiv ostensibly agreed to, at Washington’s urging, has been repeatedly violated by both sides.
After last week’s meeting in Paris, Rubio signaled impatience with the slow progress of the talks and said Washington might pull out of the effort entirely.
“But we need to figure out here now, within a matter of days, whether this is doable in the short term,” Rubio said on April 18. “Because if it’s not, then I think we’re just going to move on.”
Rubio had been expected to attend the London meeting. However, on April 22, State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said he would not join the meeting.
“That is not a statement about the meetings. It’s a statement about the logistical issues in his schedule,” she said.
Witkoff will also skip the meetings, The Financial Times reported.
Sky News, meanwhile, reported that Lammy, Britain’s top diplomat also did not plan to attend the talks.
There was no immediate confirmation of Lammy’s decision.
Coalition Of The Willing-Ish
Discussions have been ongoing for months about the possibility of a European force deploying to Ukraine to help cement any potential truce between Kyiv and Moscow.
British and French leaders have taken the lead on the idea, with a potential contingent of between 10,000 and 30,000 troops to be deployed once the shooting stops.
Moscow isn’t keen on the idea. Having soldiers from NATO members on the ground in Ukraine would be horrible optics for the Kremlin, not to mention Moscow’s unyielding opposition to NATO’s involvement with anything in Ukraine. (More on that later.)
The Trump White House, meanwhile, has ruled out US involvement, taking the position that the Europeans should take on the lead role in any such operation. That’s despite the US’s unmatched logistics and transportation abilities, not to mention the size of its industrial base.
Aside from Britain and France, however, there hasn’t been a groundswell of other nations volunteering their military personnel. Australia, Denmark, and Sweden have said they’re open to the idea. Some countries, such as Poland or the Czech Republic, are wary.
According to one European diplomat who spoke to RFE/RL, another idea that’s bubbled up in recent weeks: providing fighter jets and related assets to protect Ukrainian air space, particularly near Lviv and western parts of the country.
The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity since he was not authorized to speak publicly.
‘Not One Inch’
One of the cardinal reasons the Kremlin cited for going to war in February 2022 was Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO.
Zelenskyy’s government has said it’s committed to eventual membership, seeing it as an essential counterweight to a menacing Russia on its borders.
In addition to the Crimea idea, however, the Trump administration has also proposed removing the possibility of NATO membership for Kyiv, as part of a potential peace deal.
“NATO isn’t on the table,” Kellogg told Fox News on April 20.
Given that Kyiv’s membership hasn’t ever been imminent, or even widely supported among alliance member, taking NATO off the table entirely would be a major carrot to Moscow.
What’s problematic for Zelenskyy, however, is that eventual NATO membership has been enshrined in the country’s constitution since 2019. And like with the Crimea question, he would have to defend any decision on NATO membership before Ukrainian voters.
The day after the London talks, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was set to travel to Washington, D.C., where he was expected to meet with Trump.
Splitting Hairs, Splitting Atoms
Ukraine’s largest nuclear power plant, located along the banks of the Kakhovka Reservoir, southwest of the city of Zaporizhzhya, has been under Russian control since the early weeks of the invasion.
The facility, and its six reactors, used to generate up to 20 percent of the country’s electricity. Desperate to keep its lights on in the face of Russia bombardment, Kyiv has sought to regain control of the plant, or at least regain access to its power supplies.
During a phone call with Zelenskyy in March, Trump floated the idea that the United States would take control of some, if not all, of Ukraine’s power facilities, including its nuclear plants.
Now formally on the table, that idea would conceivably see the facility supplying power to both Ukraine, but also Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine.
Zelenskyy has pushed back on the idea, but there may be wiggle room: for example, appointing US citizens as members of the executive board for Enerhoatom, the state-owned power generator.
Rare Earths
Not directly on the table for the London talks, but closely intertwined nevertheless: Ukraine’s valuable mineral resources — things like titanium, cobalt, or so-called “rare earths.”
The Trump administration has pushed hard to get major access to the minerals, arguing it would help compensate for the billions of dollars in weaponry Washington has supplied Kyiv.
In late February, Zelenskyy had flown to Washington to sign a framework deal that would have opened the door to more US investment without sacrificing future revenues, or sovereignty, over mineral projects.
But an Oval Office meeting collapsed in acrimony, casting doubt over the future of not only the mineral deal, but also US weaponry and intelligence sharing.
After weeks of back and forth, Ukrainian and American negotiators appear to have settled on a deal. Trump last week said that the agreement would be signed on April 24, the day after the London talks.
Why is this important? At the very least, it removes an obstacle to continued US weapon supplies, which Kyiv relies heavily upon.
Truce, Cease-Fire, Armistice, Peace Deal
Since February, the Trump administration has engaged the Kremlin in direct negotiations — something that has worried the Ukrainians, as well as the Europeans, who fear being left out of any settlement.
Witkoff has met with Russian President Vladimir Putin three times, most recently in St. Petersburg on April 11. Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said Witkoff planned to return to Moscow after the London talks, something Bruce later confirmed.
The London talks “have a primary task: to push for an unconditional cease-fire. This must be the starting point,” Zelenskyy said in a statement after speaking with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
“We are ready to move forward as constructively as possible, just as we have done before, to achieve an unconditional cease-fire, followed by the establishment of a real and lasting peace,” he said.
Whether a temporary cease-fire, or longer-term cessation to fighting, can be implemented may depend more on Moscow, which has the upper hand on the battlefield and has less incentive to pull back from its “maximalist” demands.
On April 19, Putin announced a 30-hour Easter cease-fire, which portrayed as a goodwill gesture. The truce was repeatedly violated by both sides.
Two days later, Putin said he would be open to holding direct negotiations with Zelenskyy — something that hasn’t happened since the early weeks after February 2022 invasion.
By RFE/RL
The post U.S. Policy Shift on Crimea Complicates Ukraine Negotiations appeared first on Energy News Beat.
“}]]
Energy News Beat