Tensions Flare Between North and South Korea

Today marks the 80th anniversary of the D-Day Allied landings in Normandy, France, to liberate Europe from Nazi Germany. U.S. President Joe Biden as well as American World War II veterans, many over 100 years old, traveled to France for the commemoration events. Thanks to Brexit, though, British paratroopers who parachuted into France for the ceremonies had to get their passports checked by French customs officials near the fields where they landed.

Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: North Korea lashes out at South Korea with dung-filled balloons, the U.S. approves Ukrainian strikes in Russian territory, the geopolitical fallout from Sudan’s civil war, and more.

Ballooning Tensions

South Korea is fed up with North Korea’s garbage—literally. Last week, North Korea sent around 3,500 balloons full of manure, scrap paper, and cigarette butts over the border into South Korea, in response to South Korean activist groups sending balloons with propaganda leaflets and other contraband to their isolated neighbors to the north.

And even though no one was hurt by the North Korean deliveries—and Pyongyang promised to pause the mud-slinging for now—the damage had been done. The relative calm on the Korean Peninsula was officially trashed.

On Tuesday, Seoul suspended a six-year-old military agreement with Pyongyang that aimed to decrease tensions between the two countries by requiring both sides to stop holding military drills or carrying out psychological warfare activities in border areas. It’s a move that has some officials and experts worried that hostility on the Korean Peninsula—already on the rise after North Korea carried out an underwater nuclear test in January—could blow through the roof.

Tit-for-tat. The scrapped 2018 deal dated back to former South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s time in office, where he sought direct rapprochement with the north in three successive meetings with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. Both sides agreed to stop blaring propaganda messages across the border at one another and to halt live-fire exercises within the 400-square-mile demilitarized zone (DMZ) along the 38th parallel that roughly splits the two countries.

But even before Seoul killed the deal, relations on the Korean Peninsula were already deteriorating. North Korea’s failed launch of a military spy satellite in late May prompted South Korea to conduct air drills with 20 fighter jets—including F-35s, F-16s, and F-15s—maneuvering near the no-fly zone along the DMZ. And that’s when North Korea started sending trash balloons over the border.

“We cannot help being enraged by such intolerable saber-rattling, a blatant violation of our national sovereignty,” Kim said. He called South Korea a “gangsters’ regime.” And he punctuated his comments by firing 18 short-range ballistic missiles in a military drill.

Now, the Americans are involved. On Wednesday, the United States sent a long-range B-1 bomber over the Korean Peninsula in joint drills with Seoul and dropped precision-guided bombs. It was the first time that had happened in seven years. It last occurred during the war of words between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim that lasted for most of 2017.

Unwelcome distraction. For the last three years, the Biden administration has said that the U.S. will meet with North Korea anytime, anywhere, and without preconditions—a message that Pyongyang has pointedly ignored, even as Biden himself publicly repeated the pledge during Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to Washington in April.

But the flare-up in tensions comes at a time when the United States is trying to get South Korea to focus outside of the Korean Peninsula and repair relations with Japan to deal with the threat of China’s military rise.

Historical animosity stemming from Japan’s World War II-era occupation of Korea, including the military sexual enslavement of thousands of Korean women, had undermined the prospect of a diplomatic thaw for most of the past eight decades. But Seoul and Tokyo had a “kumbaya” moment at a Camp David summit with Biden, Kishida, and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol in August 2023. Earlier this week, all three countries agreed to hold joint military exercises, and Japan and South Korea agreed to re-normalize defense ties in a significant step toward overcoming those historical issues.

Now, South Korea’s military assets—and the political bandwidth to keep an eye on China—are once again being diverted to deal with North Korea’s threats.

Let’s Get Personnel

Biden has nominated Julie Smith to serve as the undersecretary of state for political affairs, the State Department’s fourth-ranking job. The role has been vacant since Victoria Nuland retired in March. Smith will stay on in her current job as U.S. ambassador to NATO while she goes through the confirmation process.

Biden has also tapped Kin Moy to be U.S. ambassador to Vietnam and James Story to be U.S. ambassador to Mozambique. Both are career foreign service officers.

Kelly Magsamen, the chief of staff to U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, is set to leave her job at the end of the month after three and a half years.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has appointed Reps. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania and Ronny Jackson of Texas to serve on the House Intelligence Committee, putting two close Trump allies on the powerful congressional panel charged with overseeing U.S. spy agencies.

Johnson has also tapped Republican U.S. Rep. Ben Cline of Virginia to serve on the China select committee.

On the Button

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

Beyond the Russian border. The Biden administration is now allowing Kyiv to hit targets inside Russia close to the Ukraine border with U.S. arms, and Ukraine hasn’t wasted any time since it got the green light. By Wednesday, Ukraine had already struck inside Russia with U.S. weapons, congressional aides and NATO officials told us, as Russia ramps up attacks on the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv near the Russian border. Other European countries, including the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, have given Ukraine similar approvals.

Some officials and congressional aides we’ve spoken to (all spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters) concede there’s a chance this could further escalate tensions between Russia and NATO, particularly as Russian President Vladimir Putin floats more nuclear threats. Others believe the policy is necessary for Ukraine to defend itself and are frustrated the Biden administration has taken so long to approve the measure, believing the White House is leaning too far into micromanaging how Ukraine uses U.S. weapons systems.

We just want to talk. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been aggressively recruiting former fighter pilots from NATO countries to train members of its air force and naval aviators, according to a bulletin issued Wednesday by the Five Eyes intelligence alliance composed of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

“The PLA wants the skills and expertise of these individuals to make its own military air operations more capable while gaining insight into Western air tactics, techniques, and procedures,” the notice said. Front companies around the world have offered potential recruits “exorbitant salaries,” Michael C. Casey, the director of the U.S. National Counterintelligence and Security Center, said in a statement.

“Somalia on steroids.” The U.S. special envoy for Sudan told Foreign Policy that the East African country’s ongoing civil war could devolve into a failed state, warning that it could become “Somalia on steroids,” as Robbie reported this week.

Sudan’s civil war, one of the world’s deadliest conflicts, has killed around 150,000 people by some estimates and been the scene of widespread atrocities including ethnic cleansing and potentially genocide. It has significant geopolitical implications as well: Russia is eyeing establishing a naval refueling station in Sudan on the strategically important Red Sea coast in exchange for supplying the Sudanese Armed Forces with more weapons.