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The Baltic Dirty Tanker fell 15% over the 30 days to May 25, entirely reversing the 15% increase in the previous 30 day period. The main cause was weakness in the Atlantic, with the most exposed suezmax index falling 45% to $33,280 on May 25, followed by a 39% fall in aframax average earnings to $28,605 but “only” a 16% fall in VLCC earnings to $41,626. While these are disappointing figures for ship owners, they are not disastrous: owners can turn a decent operating profit at these levels.
With nearly five months of the year gone, average earnings of $42,489 a day for VLCCs is only slightly down on $44,877 for the first five months of 2024, which included a bumper January average of over $57,500 a day. The MEG to China voyage was offering a TCE of $41,782 a day on May 23, which was 21% lower than a month earlier, while the USG to China voyage was assessed at a TCE of $40,738 a day, down 9% over 30 days.
Fleet tracker Kpler reported that Canada’s seaborne exports to China exceeded those to the US for the first time ever in May. Seaborne Canadian exports to China were 290 k bpd in April, while seaborne shipments to the US were 286 k bpd, according to Kpler. Exports from Canada’s west coast have been boosted by the trans-Mountain pipeline building up to nearly 900 k bpd. Canada still pipes around 4 Mn bpd to the US, with the northern neighbour benefiting from a halt in similarly heavy supplies from Venezuela to the US. China has imposed a 10% tariff on US oil, making Canadian alternatives competitive on price. Time will tell what that does to US-China oil freight rates.
In the suezmax sector, the recent darling, the route from Guyana to ARA, faced its most difficult month since inception as demand fell and took freight rates with it, recording a 43% fall over 30 days to $28,826 per day on May 23, the lowest reading since the last day of January this year. Rates from West Africa to Europe for suezmax vessels also plunged by 44% to $29,752 in the same period, while cross-Med suezmax rates were down 13% to $36,970. Falling crude oil prices were reported to be supporting refinery throughput and margins, but in Europe refiners have not been rushing to build inventory.
This reticence affected the aframax freight market too, with daily earnings from the North Sea to the UK down by 45% to $36,807 and from the North Sea to Germany down by 29% to $ 38,759. In the Caribs, aframax earnings fell by 56% to $22,803 while on the US Gulf to ARA route they were down by 47% to $25,429.
Disappointment all round for owners then, but falling crude oil prices and the driving season to come offer some hope.
The oil products tanker freight market also dipped in mid-May but recovered strongly so that by the 23rd, the BTCI stood at 724 points, up 8% on 669 recorded on April 23. Global CPP imports reached their highest point this year at a total of 37.1 Mn T for the week to May 23. Chinese refiners are said to be responding positively to falling crude oil prices which are driving up margins and production. With one week of May left, the monthly total Chinese CPP import figure of 8.3 Mn T is already level with 8.3 Mn T for all of April.
As with the crude oil market, the Atlantic was weaker than the Pacific. For instance, the Baltic Exchange’s MR Atlantic Basket ended April at $25,709 a day, dipped to a low of $12,929 on May 19 and recovered to $22,394 on May 23. Meanwhile the MR Pacific Basket ended April at $18,070, was largely flat until May 14 then pushed up to $26,612 on May 23. With three quarters of global refining capacity now to be found East of Suez, oil market dynamics now favour products tanker markets in the east.
The TCE for the benchmark LR2 voyage from the Mid East to Japan struggled in April and early May but climbed throughout the second half of May to reach $34,696 on May 25, some 32% higher than 30 days previously. Daily TCEs for LR1s on the same voyage lost 22% on the month to April 23 but gained 17% in the following 30 days to sit at a comfortable $29,047 per day.
Mid-East refineries benefited from more and cheaper feedstock as OPEC producers in the region opened the spigots. Rates on TC20, the LR2 voyage from the Mid East to NW Europe, rose 26% over 30 days to May 25, sitting pretty at $38,568 per day. Indian refiners were able to take advantage of falling feedstock prices, pushing up throughput and thus demand for shipping. The freight costs for Jamnagar to Chiba rose 38% over the 30 days to May 25 from Worldscale 139 to WS 192. For an MR product tanker, that converts to a TCE rising 73% from $11,478 per day on April 23 to $19,875 on May 23.
The seasonal pattern still suggests a steady downswing from here to the end of Q3. As Mr Trump continues to threaten tariffs and disrupt trade patterns, the freight market remains a curate’s egg, with owners’ and charterers’ minds alike spinning at the volatile nature of markets.
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