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ENB Pub Note: This article is from the Energy Reminations Substack and was written by Doug Sandridge, who is a friend of the ENB Podcast. He has extensive international energy knowledge, and I interviewed Doug in Norway while he was at an energy conference. We recommend subscribing to his substack, and tell him Stu sent you.
Germany shut-down its last three nuclear reactors on April 15, 2023 as the final act of a decade-long drama to permanently raze its commercial nuclear power industry. The decision to dismantle Germany’s nuclear industry was based on unjustified fear, misguided energy policies, and hubris. The result has been devastating to Germany’s economy, the welfare of its citizens and its national security. In December 2024, Radiant Energy Group published a report entitled Restarting Germany’s Reactors: Feasibility and Schedule. The Radiant Report provides the roadmap for restarting many of Germany’s nuclear reactors.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT
Germany’s initial foray into nuclear energy predictably began with research reactors in the 1950s. The first commercial nuclear power plant in Germany was commissioned in 1969. By 1990, Germany’s civilian nuclear power program was literally the envy of the world. At one time, Germany produced approximately 30% of its domestic electricity from nuclear energy. Germany’s nuclear power plants were truly “Industrial Cathedrals of Clean Energy,” operating extremely safely and efficiently at high-capacity factors.
“INDUSTRIAL CATHEDRALS OF CLEAN ENERGY” – Emmet Penney
During the early 1970s, an anti-nuclear movement began to emerge in Germany, concurrent with a similar anti-nuclear crusade which was also sweeping across the United States. Anti-nuclear sentiment in Germany intensified in 1986 following the Chernobyl accident in nearby Ukraine. By 2002, Germany had decided to eventually phase out all of its nuclear reactors. After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan, anti-nuclear sentiment in Germany reached its zenith. Succumbing to pressure from the public and anti-nuclear non-governmental organizations, the German government announced that it would immediately shut-down the eight oldest nuclear reactors in Germany just four days after the Fukushima accident. Shortly thereafter, on May 30, 2011, the German government announced the complete phase-out the remaining nine nuclear power reactors by 2022.
German protest against nuclear energy in 2011
Contemporaneously, with the phase out of Germany’s nuclear power, a new energy policy was implemented called the Energiewende (German for “energy turn-around”). The Energiewende intended to rely heavily on the development of new renewable energy resources. In Germany, it was widely believed that all of the reliable, resilient, affordable, low carbon nuclear energy could be phased out by 2022 and substituted with energy efficiency measures, demand response policies and electricity generated from wind and solar.
Germany doubled its nameplate electricity generating capacity between 2002 and 2022 through the aggressive development and subsidization of wind and solar. However, by 2021 it was already apparent to energy-sober experts that wind and solar alone would not be able to adequately replace the electricity generated by Germany’s Industrial Cathedrals of Clean Energy. Concern about maintaining affordable and reliable electricity began to sway German public sentiment in favor of keeping its remaining nuclear power plants open; however, the entrenched and stubborn German government was too invested in the decades-old fight to eliminate nuclear energy and was ultimately unable to make any last-minute course corrects to keep the remaining nuclear plants operating.
On December 31st, 2021, three of Germany’s remaining six nuclear power plants were unceremoniously shut down. Many in Germany and around the world immediately recognized that shutting-down the six remaining German nuclear plants would be a monumental mistake. Nevertheless, Germany proceeded with plans to shut down the three last remaining nuclear power plants by the end of 2022.
GERMANY’S ENERGY CRISIS MANIFESTS
Twenty years of poor German energy policy finally manifested itself into a full-blown crisis upon Russia’s unexpected invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022. Following the invasion, Gazprom curtailed deliveries of gas from Russia to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on the pretense of maintenance concerns. German policymakers began to consider the potential consequences of the ensuing winter without either Russian gas or nuclear power. Eventually, the German government agreed to postpone closure of the last three operating German nuclear reactors for three and one-half months in order to provide a precautionary cushion of energy capacity during the 2022/2023 winter.
Bolstered by a modest amount of Russian gas continuing to flow into Europe through Ukraine and a mercifully mild winter, Germany and the remainder of Europe survived the 2022/2023 winter with only minor bumps and bruises. The false sense of energy security precipitated by the mild winter, emboldening Germany to proceed with the shut-down of its last three remaining nuclear reactors on April 15, 2023. The consequences of the shut-down of Germany’s entire fleet of nuclear reactors coupled with the severe reduction of natural gas from Russia has been nothing short of catastrophic for Germany and Europe more broadly.
Without the reliable energy previously generated from the closed nuclear plants, Germany has found it challenging to keep the lights on and maintain its manufacturing prowess. Germany responded by re-opening coal plants to provide badly needed electricity. Germany was also forced to start purchasing large volumes of natural gas on the spot market, at much higher prices than it was accustomed to paying prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The lack of dependable and affordable energy has contributed to the rapid de-industrialization of Germany and many businesses have closed or relocated their operations to places with lower energy costs. Germany’s economy almost immediately slid into recession, as its citizens suffered and became disillusioned with the German government and the Energiewende. Neighboring countries like Norway, Sweden and France also became disenchanted and outright hostile because shutting-down Germany’s nuclear power plants began exerting pressure on neighbors to export electricity to Germany, thus causing scarcity and their own domestic electricity prices to skyrocket. This turmoil and economic destruction culminated in the fall of the ruling German coalition government.
The fall of Germany’s governing coalition and the emergence of a new governing coalition has given hope that some of the shuttered nuclear power plants can be re-started. Most observers agree that re-starting any number of the German nuclear power plans would be a great thing for Germany and its neighbors. However, the German utilities have begun dismantling and decommissioning all of the closed nuclear power plants. Until now, it has been unclear whether or not restarting any of the nuclear power plants would be possible or practical.
THE RADIANT ENERGY GROUP REPORT
As a nuclear influencer, Mark Nelson has long advocated to restart some of the German nuclear power plants. As the founder of Radiant Energy Group and a nuclear energy professional, Nelson has aspired to provide a feasibility analysis and roadmap for re-opening German nuclear power plants. Radiant Energy Group (Chicago & London) offers a specialist consultancy regarding nuclear energy. In December 2024, Radiant Energy Group published a report entitled Restarting Germany’s Reactors: Feasibility and Schedule
This report has been enabled by extensive research by the Radiant Energy Group team and intelligence gathered about the current state of nuclear decommissioning in Germany. Noah Jakob Rettberg was a technical advisor for the report. Rettberg, and his associates in Germany, interviewed employees at each of the shuttered nuclear power plants in order to obtain first-hand information about the current status of decommissioning. Rettberg was the intellectual architect of the feasibility ranking for restarting each of the German reactors. Madi Hilly, was the lead author of the report and Richard Ollington provided strategic insight and technical skills to produce the report. Ultimately, Nelson was the final editor of the Radiant Energy Group Report.
The Radiant Energy Group Report describes the feasibility and schedule upon which many of the German nuclear reactors could be returned to service. According to the report, “….the restart of German nuclear power plants depends solely on political will.” The two most urgent measures are an immediate moratorium on the further dismantling of reactors and an amendment to the German Atomic Energy Act to allow nuclear power plants to be legally operated again.
Radiant Energy Group’s Executive Summary:
Reversing Germany’s nuclear shutdown remains popular, economical, and feasible. No major technical barriers prevent Germany’s recently closed reactors from coming back online. New energy demand and Three Mile Island’s planned restart have created new opportunities for recommissioning retired nuclear plants, making even those undergoing extensive decommissioning economically viable for a restart. Legal hurdles exist but can be addressed.
Two-thirds of Germans support the continued use of nuclear energy. Radiant Energy Group’s Public Attitudes toward Clean Energy (PACE) report found that 67% of Germans support nuclear’ s use for electricity generation in the country. 42% of respondents support building new plants, while only 23% support phasing out and banning nuclear energy altogether.
Electricity production from retired German reactors could have a market value of 100 billion euros over 20 years. With the growth of AI and high-performance computing, hyperscalers need large amounts of constant energy to power massive data centers for cloud computing, storage, and processing. Recently, Microsoft signed a deal to pay between 110–115 USD/MWh for clean nuclear energy from Constellation Energy by restarting Three Mile Island Unit 1. If German reactors were restarted and granted the same 20-year life extension as Three Mile Island, at 100 EUR/MWh, they could generate over 100 billion euros in taxable profit from rapidly growing industries eager to meet their energy demands swiftly.
By 2028, three reactors could be restarted, adding 4 GW of capacity. If decommissioning stops now and rehiring begins, Brokdorf could resume operation as early as the end of 2025. With swift legislative action and proper planning, Emsland and Grohnde can be operational by the end of 2028. Six additional reactors could all be restarted by the end of 2032.
Brokdorf Nuclear Generating Station, Germany
Other benefits of restarting German nuclear plants. With nuclear plants back in operation, electricity-related CO2 emissions would decrease in Germany and neighboring countries. Approximately 5,000 high-paying jobs would be preserved in the rural communities hosting the nuclear plants. Additionally, Germany’s once cutting-edge nuclear technology industry could be revitalized as more countries begin or expand their nuclear programs.
CONCLUSION
Restarting any number of Germany’s nuclear power plants would be impactful within a short period of time, at relatively low costs. With swift legislative action, Brokdorf Nuclear Power Plant could resume operation by end of 2025 at an estimated cost of less than 500 million Euros, restoring approximately 1410 MW of power capacity. According to the Radiant Energy Group Report, Emsland Nuclear Power Station could resume operation by the end of 2028, at an estimated cost of less than 1 billion Euros, delivering another 1335 MW of power capacity. The restart of Brokdorf and Emsland alone would be highly impactful in terms of the amount of power delivered in a short period of time at a low cost per installed megawatt of capacity.
According to the Radiant Energy Group Report, a staggering 12.145 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity could be restored in just eight years. There is no other place in the world where an equivalent amount of reliable low carbon nuclear power capacity could be brought on-line in such a short time-frame or at an equivalently low cost. Given the serious economic and security issues facing Europe, there can be no logical argument for not immediately placing a moratorium on the further dismantling of the German nuclear reactors. Germany, indeed all of Europe, desperately needs the energy which could be provided by restarting as many nuclear reactors as possible, as quickly as possible.
Some critics of Germany’s recent energy policies might be smugly satisfied to allow Germany to wallow in the energy quagmire of its own making. However, the brutal truth is that the world needs a strong Germany and a strong Europe as a bulwark of Western democracy. After World War II, the United States could have abandoned Europe to fend for itself to slowly emerge from the devastation of the war. However, the U. S. recognized that a strong and vibrant democratic Europe would be good for the U. S. and the entire free world. Under the European Recovery Program, commonly called the Marshall Plan, the U. S. spent staggering amounts of money to rebuild Europe with the belief that the best defense against Soviet aggression would be strong and financially independent countries and allies.
Europe is at another cross-roads of history, begotten by poor energy policy rather than war. We hope that Germany and the other European nations are finally recognizing the folly of closing their existing nuclear power plants. Re-opening one or more German nuclear power plants could do more than just provide badly needed energy to Germany, it could also provide a symbolic blow to the global anti-nuclear movement. Over the past decades, much of the money and momentum for the global anti-nuclear movement has been provided by the German government and German-based anti-nuclear organizations. If the new German government can be persuaded to re-open one or more German nuclear power plants, it would be a powerful gesture signaling the beginning of the end of the anti-nuclear movement around the world.
“We have a chance into getting rid of the institutionalized anti-nuclear movement in Germany…….and taking away a significant amount of funding of the global anti-nuclear movement which it gets from the German state coffers.”
Noah Jakob Rettberg
In recent years, Germany’s government has promulgated dis-functional energy policies, economic policies, and immigration policies. Energy Ruminations hopes that the recent German elections can bring a modicum of common sense to Germany’ governing coalition. Energy Ruminations believes that it is time to rally around the idea of restarting Germany’s nuclear reactors. Not only would it provide badly needed energy to Europe, it would also provide oxygen to the pro-nuclear movement around the world.
Radiant Energy Group plans to hold a Conference in Berlin in April 2025 to discuss and debate re-opening the German nuclear power plants. Learn more about Radiant Energy Group.
Source: Douglascsandridge.substack.com
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