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The Red Sea, a critical artery for global energy trade, is witnessing a resurgence in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping following a slowdown in Houthi attacks. Since November 2023, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels disrupted maritime traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, targeting vessels in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, a U.S.-Houthi ceasefire and reduced attack frequency since August 2024 have led to a 60% increase in marine traffic, with daily ship transits rising to 36–37 vessels, though still below the pre-crisis average of 72–75 ships per day. This article explores the current state of oil and LNG shipping through the Red Sea, highlighting key shipping countries, estimated volumes, and the implications for global energy markets.
One key point to note is that Russian LNG does not currently use the Red Sea. What do they know?
A Vital Energy Corridor
The Red Sea, connecting the Suez Canal to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, facilitates approximately 12% of global seaborne oil and 8% of LNG trade. In 2023, an estimated 8.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and oil products and 31.9 million metric tons (MMt) of LNG transited the region. The Houthi attacks, which peaked between November 2023 and March 2024 with over 190 incidents, forced major shipping companies like Maersk, BP, and Shell to reroute vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to transit times and increasing costs. The recent ceasefire has encouraged a partial return to the Red Sea route, though uncertainties linger.
Current Shipping Trends and Countries Involved
While comprehensive data for 2025 volumes is sparse, the 60% traffic increase suggests a recovery in oil and LNG flows. Key shipping countries and their roles include:
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Qatar: As Europe’s second-largest LNG supplier, Qatar shipped approximately 20 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG to Europe via the Red Sea in 2023, accounting for 16% of European LNG imports. Qatar halted Red Sea transits in January 2024 after U.S.-led airstrikes but has likely resumed some shipments following the ceasefire.
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Russia: Russia has significantly increased oil exports through the Red Sea since 2022, redirecting crude to India and China after European sanctions. In December 2023, Russian crude to India was a major component of tanker traffic. Southbound oil flows to Asia reached 2.9 million bpd in 2023.
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Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia exports crude to Europe via the Red Sea and the East-West pipeline, with additional refined products to Asia and the Middle East. Middle Eastern producers, including Saudi Arabia, dominate northbound crude traffic to Europe.
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United States: U.S. LNG shipments to Asia, often routed through the Suez Canal as an alternative to the Panama Canal, have been affected by Red Sea disruptions. The U.S. also exported a record 2.3 million bpd of crude to Europe in December 2023, partly due to Red Sea rerouting.
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India: As a major importer of Russian and Middle Eastern oil, India relies heavily on Red Sea routes. The country’s growing dependence on Russian crude has sustained tanker traffic despite Houthi risks.
Estimated Volumes and Recovery
Exact volumes for 2025 are not fully reported, but historical data and recent trends provide context. In the first half of 2023, 9.2 million bpd of oil (crude and refined products) transited the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline, with 8.8 million bpd passing through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. LNG flows included 16.2 MMt eastbound and 15.7 MMt westbound through the Suez Canal. The 57.5% drop in Suez Canal trade volume from 4.0 million metric tons daily in late 2023 to 1.7 million in early 2024 reflects the crisis’s peak impact. With traffic now at 36–37 ships per day, oil and LNG volumes are likely recovering but remain below pre-crisis levels.
For illustration, the chart below shows the decline and partial recovery of Red Sea marine traffic based on available data from October 2023 to June 2025. The data is approximated from daily ship transits and historical trade volumes.
Chart: Red Sea Marine Traffic (Daily Ship Transits, October 2023–June 2025)
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Date
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Daily Ship Transits
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Notes
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Oct 2023
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72–75
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Pre-Houthi attack average
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Jan 2024
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23–25
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Peak of Houthi disruptions (estimated)
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Aug 2024
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22–23
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Low point before ceasefire
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Jun 2025
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36–37
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Current traffic post-ceasefire
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Challenges and Environmental Risks
Despite the recovery, challenges persist. The EU’s Operation Aspides, extended until February 2026, reports limited escort capacity, deterring full traffic restoration. Houthi threats remain, with attacks narrowing but not ceasing, raising concerns about renewed disruptions. Environmental risks are also significant. The sinking of the Rubymar in March 2024 and the attack on the Sounion tanker in August 2024, carrying nearly 1 million barrels of crude, highlight the potential for oil spills. Satellite imagery shows oil slicks doubling in the region between 2023 and 2024, threatening marine ecosystems.
Implications for Energy Markets
The partial recovery of Red Sea shipping is a positive signal for global energy markets, but risks remain. Increased transit times and insurance costs from rerouting have raised freight rates, with Suezmax tanker rates doubling to $85,000 per day in December 2023. While Brent crude prices have stabilized at around $75–$80 per barrel, prolonged disruptions could tighten supply and push prices higher. Europe, heavily reliant on Qatari LNG and Middle Eastern oil, faces the greatest exposure, with potential supply chain delays if attacks resume.
Conclusion
The Red Sea’s rebound in oil and LNG shipping reflects cautious optimism following the Houthi ceasefire. Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and India remain key players, with volumes approaching but not yet matching pre-crisis levels. However, limited naval escorts, environmental hazards, and the potential for renewed Houthi aggression underscore the fragility of this recovery. Energy markets must stay vigilant as geopolitical and environmental risks continue to shape this critical trade route.
One key voice to follow on oil and gas is Anas Alhajji anasalhajji.com.
Sources: Reuters, Arab News, The Washington Post, Mongabay, ING Think, and posts on X. For further details, contact Energy News Beat.
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