Israel-Hamas Conflict: Stakes High for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s talks with the US about normalizing its ties with Israel have been thrown into the deep freeze by the outbreak of violent conflict between Israel and the Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas, which is backed by Iran.

A normalization deal would have involved an upgrade in US-Saudi relations to include a US security guarantee and support for a Saudi civilian nuclear program in exchange for Israeli concessions on the Palestinian issue.

Several Arab states have inked normalization deals with Israel in recent years, the United Arab Emirates among them.

But because Saudi Arabia is home to the holiest sites in Islam, its talks to normalize ties with Israel carry a lot of weight.

A Saudi deal would have added a formal layer of acceptance and legitimacy to the Israeli state from the Muslim world.

Israelis and Palestinians contest access to and sovereignty over the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, the third-holiest site in Islam after Mecca and Medina, but which has long held a place as the symbolic Sunni Muslim capital and cultural center.

While the Saudi leadership is pragmatic about a normalization pact, it doesn’t want to risk a domestic or wider backlash by compromising on the rights of Palestinians and Muslims more widely.

Focus on De-Escalation

Saudi Arabia’s official reaction to the conflict condemned all violence impacting civilians, but also highlighted that the root cause of the conflict must be addressed through a two-state solution.

The public reaction from Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, is one of anger and deep sympathy with the Palestinian cause. On social media, the hashtags #FreePalestine and #JusticeForPalestine were visible throughout the Arab world.

Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel has left more than 1,000 people dead and more than 100 Israeli and foreign nationals have been taken hostage, while Israel’s retaliatory strikes have left more than 800 Palestinians dead in Gaza.

On Oct. 9 Israel’s defense minister declared Gaza to be under siege and said all water, power and food supplies would be cut, describing Hamas as “human animals.”

Leaders in the region are highly sensitive to the situation, with an eye on the potential for public unrest. One Gulf-based analyst told Energy Intelligence that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is deeply aware of this and for now will not want to stir up any bad sentiment.

As the situation on the ground in Gaza grows increasingly grim, Arab leaders have been holding bilateral talks with one another in an attempt to de-escalate.

The US also appears to be making efforts to contain the conflict, with officials stating that it’s unclear if Iran was involved in planning the surprise attack with Hamas.

Talks on Hold

In a recent Fox TV interview, before the Hamas attacks, Prince Mohammed said that the normalization talks were moving in the right direction, but key conditions must be met, including a two-state solution that would restore the rights of the Palestinians.

Well ahead of last weekend’s attack, the kingdom appeared to be laying the groundwork for Palestinian acceptance of a normalization deal.

Early this year, Riyadh had agreed to release several Hamas members held in Saudi prisons in what appeared to be an olive branch to the group and Iran.

Sources familiar with the matter say the kingdom had hoped, through coordination with Qatar, that Hamas would take a step back and allow the Palestinian Authority to participate in normalization talks that involved a two-state solution.

Saudi geopolitical analyst and former MI6 mole within Al-Qaeda, Aimen Dean, told Energy Intelligence that the Hamas attack was a clear indication that the group is not ready to step back.

He said officials in the kingdom feel “betrayed” because they had understood they had an assurance allowing the Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, to take a leading role in the talks.

Now, with hundreds of lives lost on both sides of the conflict, it’s unclear if normalization talks with Saudi Arabia can be revived.

A source close to the Saudi government has told Energy Intelligence that talks with US officials on the matter would be delayed.