[[{“value”:”
- A Chinese research institute predicts China’s share of rare earth materials could significantly decrease by 2035 due to new mines and emerging sources globally.
- The United States is actively seeking alternatives to China’s rare earth supply, including exploring domestic deposits and building alliances with other refining networks.
- New discoveries in Africa, Brazil, and the US, along with challenges to China’s dominance, are reshaping the rare earth ecosystem and potentially redistributing market power.
A rare earth metals report by none other than a state-backed research institute is not only likely to unsettle the Chinese authorities, it has also come as a bolt out of the blue for the rest of the world. A report by the Chinese Academy of Sciences released a few days ago said China’s dominance in the rare earths sector could be nearing the end.
But the disclosure does not stop there. It also outlines how the opening of new mines in Australia, South Africa and other countries, as well as Greenland’s Kvanefjeld project, may reshape the rare earths ecosystem in the coming years. This also serves to underline why the U.S. under President Donald Trump is so keen on Greenland. With the publication of this report, some experts believe that the changing scenario will favor the United States.
A Shock for the Rare Earth Metals Market
The study, which was published in the Chinese Rare Earths journal, is a rare admission of a forthcoming fundamental shift. The CAS team used advanced “agent-based” modeling to simulate demand and mining prospects globally between 2025 and 2040. Though this accurately simulated about 1,000 global deposits and over 140 viable mines, it did not factor in political influences.
Based on the results, the research team concluded that China’s roughly 62% share of raw material could drop to about 28% as early as 2035. The primary reasoning is the new emerging sources of rare earth metals. Incidentally, the research team is from the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy in Ganzhou in eastern China, one of the world’s largest critical metal production centers.
Today, China’s dominance of the supply chain for rare earths and other critical metals is near-total. The country sits on about 60% of global reserves and processes about 90% of all rare earth metals. Because of this, Beijing enjoys a near-monopoly in the supply of rare earth materials, which are essential for electric vehicles, electronics and even military equipment.
The United States, Africa, and Other Global Players
Since China produces about 2/3rd of the world’s total rare earth metals supply, the U.S. has been on the lookout for alternatives. A 2024 report by the United States Geological Survey said there were about 110 MT of deposits spread around the world. Of this, about 44 MT are in China, another 22 MT are in Brazil, followed by 21 MT in Vietnam, 10 MT in Russia and approximately 7 MT in India.
Now, it seems that Africa may also become a big player in the rare earth supply chain. Led by South Africa’s Steenkampskraal mine and other projects in Tanzania, experts predict Africa’s share may go up to from about 1% to 7% by 2040. But there is a red flag to consider, as Chinese investments fund many of the African projects, something the U.S. looks at with consternation.
The report also stated that Brazil’s Serra Verde and other projects related to heavy rare earths like dysprosium could meet about 13% of the global supply by 2040. However, there are caveats, such as environmental regulations. The CAS report adds that the neodymium-rich Mount Weld mine in Australia and the Olympic Dam mines, which produce copper and uranium as byproducts, are building U.S.-allied refining networks to bypass China.
New Discoveries by China and the U.S.
In January of this year, Beijing disclosed it had found a huge rare earth deposit in the southwestern province of Yunnan. According to reports quoting China’s Geological Survey, the 1.5 million ton deposit contains medium and heavy rare earths, including over 470,000 tons of elements like praseodymium and neodymium. At the time of the announcement, experts said that the discovery would only further consolidate China’s prominence as the global rare earth leader.
On the opposite side of the world, U.S. researchers announced in late 2024 that they had identified a domestic treasure trove of critical minerals in the country’s coal ash deposits. The report also claimed that coal ash, a byproduct from burning coal for energy typically written off as industrial waste, could hold about 11 MT of rare earth elements, or about eight times more than known domestic rare earth reserves.
This discovery, made by a team from The University of Texas at Austin, reveals a whopping US $8.4 billion worth of rare earths. The report led some experts to opine that harnessing these reserves could dramatically alter the supply chain dynamics for rare earth metals and reduce U.S. dependence on imports.
By Sohrab Darabshaw
The post Global Rare Earth Market Poised for Transformation appeared first on Energy News Beat.
“}]]
Energy News Beat