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The sudden escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war with the United States, UK and France allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike Russian territory and the subsequent change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine have brought the long-forgotten European geopolitical risk back, lifting ICE Brent slightly to $73 per barrel.
– US crude futures have flipped to contango for the first time since February, signaling oversupply into a market that is increasingly worried about the impacts of potential Trump tariff wars and slower Chinese demand growth.
– The M1-M2 spread in WTI futures settled at -$0.01 per barrel on November 18, and even though it happened right before the expiration of the December contract, the implication is that storage of crude might become a commercial play again.
– The same M1-M2 spread has remained positive in ICE Brent, trading between $0.25 and $0.30 per barrel, whilst in Dubai futures there seems to be the least concerns of oversupply with M1-M2 trending around $0.35 per barrel.
– Since October, the net length of long positions held by hedge funds in WTI Nymex has declined continuously, rising only once in the week of the US presidential elections, and stands at only 50% of summer positions at 125,942 contracts.
Market Movers
– US shale firm Ovintiv (NYSE:OVV) has agreed to purchase oil assets from Paramount Resources (TSO:POU) for $2.38 billion in a cash settlement, adding some 70,000 b/d of oil equivalent output in Canada’s Montney shale play.
– US oil and gas producer Coterra Energy (NYSE:CTRA) is set to boost its Permian acreage in New Mexico with a $3.95 billion purchase of assets held by privately held Franklin Mountain Energy and Avant Natural Resources.
– In yet another instance of US M&A activity, the private equity owner of Ridgemar Energy is exploring the sale of the oil producer, valuing the company at more than $1 billion, offering some 70,000 net acres in the western areas of the Eagle Ford basin.
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
Trump Nominates Fracking Boss as US Energy Secretary. US president-elect Donald Trump will nominate Chris Wright, the chief executive of hydraulic fracturing services firm Liberty Energy, to lead the US Department of Energy, working alongside Doug Burgum who will become US interior secretary.
China Warns on US on Its Red Lines. In the final meeting of President Joe Biden with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the latter has called on US authorities to refrain from punitive trade actions and challenging China’s red lines on Taiwan, the South China Sea and the Korean peninsula.
Venture Global Sees Huge Cost Overruns. As US LNG developer Venture Global is preparing for its upcoming public offering, its IPO documents indicate that the 20 mtpa Plaquemines LNG might end up with a $21-22 billion price tag, with production expected to begin over the coming weeks.
Brazil Eyes Argentina’s Shale Gas Bounty. Brazil and Argentina have signed an agreement to develop natural gas infrastructure that would connect Argentina’s shale Vaca Muerta basin to Brazil, with Brazilian authorities indicating this could lead to imports of as much as 30 MMCf/d by 2030.
Trafigura Still Hunting for Missing Mongolian Revenue. Swiss trading house Trafigura is trying to locate some 500 million in Mongolia after it acknowledged a multi-year fraud scheme by its employees that left a $1.1 billion gap in its revenues, wary of worsening reputational damage.
Uranium Soars on Russia Export Restrictions to US. Uranium prices jumped almost 10% past week after Russia imposed temporary restrictions on exports of enriched uranium to the United States, a tit-for-tat move after the US banned these imports, sending 2025 uranium quotes to $84/lb.
Gas Blast Jeopardizes Venezuela’s Exports. An explosion and ensuing fire severely damaged gas pipelines and high-pressure pipes at Venezuela’s Muscar gas complex, due to which production and upgrading of heavy oil in the Latin American country would be severely compromised, falling by at least 150,000 b/d into February.
German Electricity Soars on Cold Weather. German power prices jumped to their highest this year to €108 per MWh after forecasts indicate the arrival of winter weather across the European continent, further lifted by Russian pipeline gas woes and disappointing wind power generation lately.
LNG Tankers Divert to Europe on Pipeline Woes. According to Kpler, at least five LNG tankers have diverted from Asia to Europe after natural gas prices soared across the continent on news of Russia’s Gazprom halting supplies to Austria’s OMV after the latter won a $240 million arbitration case against it and refused to pay for upcoming deliveries.
COP29 Talks on Climate Finance Blocked by CBAM. Negotiations on a new global climate finance goal at the COP29 conference in Baku have been derailed by Europe’s insistence on implementing its carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), with developing countries seeing it as an undue export restriction.
Hedge Funds Tame Their Bullishness on Gold. The net length of bullish positions held by hedge funds and other money managers in gold fell to its lowest in three months after Donald Trump’s decisive victory, dipping 11% week-on-week to 197.362 contracts in the week ending November 12.
Colombia Clears Ecopetrol to Market Excess Gas. Colombia’s energy regulator CREG has allowed the country’s state-controlled oil major Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) to market its excess gas, with the company eyeing some 34 MMCf/d of gas sales beginning from December and tripling the volume by 2026.
Europe’s Largest Oilfield Goes Down. The Johan Sverdrup field, Europe’s largest currently producing around 750-760,000 b/d, has restarted production after a power outage at a converter station forced a full halt to its operations, however, operator Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) is only running it at two-thirds capacity.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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