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BRUSSELS — A growing number of EU leaders are now ready to counter US tarrifs on EU goods with retaliative measures, if necessary.
Trade was not meant to be on the agenda, but you wouldn’t know it from the EU leaders’ remarks when they arrived for their informal defence ‘retreat’ in Brussels.
The past weeks have been a balancing act for Europeans: it is clear that Europe needs the United States in terms of security, support for Ukraine and as a trading partner.
The tone towards the new Trump administration has been measured accordingly. No leader wanted to give the new man in the White House a reason to direct his wrath at them.
Concern over the looming trade war, which EU diplomats believe could come as soon as this week, came to the fore as EU leaders arrived to discuss defence spending against the backdrop of Russia’s war against Ukraine and Trump’s burden-sharing demands.
Trump’s language, meanwhile, has so far been highly abrasive.
Just as he targeted Canada, Mexico and China with steep tariffs, Trump before the weekend vowed to “absolutely” impose tariffs on EU goods because it had treated the U.S. “so terribly” and had been “an atrocity” on trade.
“The UK is out of line, but (…) I think that one can be worked out. But the European Union, it’s an atrocity what they’ve done,” Trump said and doubled down: “So the UK is way out of line … but the European Union is really out of line.”
Over the weekend, the tone on this side of the Atlantic has started to shift, with EU diplomats increasingly saying that, at some point, the EU will be forced to respond in kind.
A European Commission spokesperson said on Sunday that the EU “would respond firmly” if Trump “unfairly or arbitrarily imposes tariffs on EU goods.”
While the Commission has been working on potential retaliatory measures, people familiar with the matter say it is deemed too early to threaten them more publicly.
While EU leaders were trying to remind the Trump administration about the economic value of EU-US trade, they now widely agree that the correct answer to tariffs should be to retaliate with the same measures if necessary.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Monday the bloc had that capacity, while French President Emmanuel Macron warned the EU must show its muscle if Trump makes good on his threat.
“If we are attacked in terms of trade, Europe – as a true power – will have to stand up for itself and therefore react,” Macron said.
Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen warned that if the US imposes tariffs, Europe needs “a collective and robust response”.
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose country currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency, slammed trade wars as “unnecessary and stupid”.
“It would be cruel if during the time of a direct Russian threat and Chinese expansion, and all these dangerous things, we would find a reason to be in conflict among allies,” Tusk told reporters.
One key line of messaging that Europeans hope could work on Trump is to dangle the China carrot in front of him.
During his first term, Trump pushed Europeans to align with the US on China policy. Brussels is already heading towards a trade war with Beijing to prevent Chinese exports from being diverted into Europe and decimating European industry.
Some EU diplomats believe the right messaging on China could resonate with Trump.
“If the US and Europe start a trade war, the one laughing on the side is China,” the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Monday.
“There are no winners in trade wars,” she added.
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