Why More Sanctions on Russia Will Hurt the US

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Highlights of the Podcast 

00:00 – Intro

01:34 – Why Hasn’t Trump Hit Russia with More Sanctions? – Because it would hand the Mid-term elections to the Democrats

06:41 – How the Grid Is Changing: Investing in Electrical Utilities and Oil & Gas Companies to Boost Your Portfolio

09:56 – Hybrid Cars: A Fuel-Saving Bridge to the Future or a Political Outcast?

15:07 – Trump Emergency Order Halts Second Power Plant From Closure: A Win for Energy Reliability

19:19 – Market Updates

20:03 – OPEC+ Unwinds Output Cuts: Impacts on Member Countries, Global Oil Market, and U.S. Shale

26:22 – EOG Resources Grows Utica Operations with $5.6 billion Encino Acquisition

29:16 – Outro

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] Why more sanctions on Russia will hurt the United States. Next, on the Energy News Beat standup. [00:00:05][5.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:00:13] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the June 2nd, 2025 edition of the Daily Energy Newsbeat stand-up. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, why hasn’t Trump hit Russia with more sanctions? Well, because it would hand the midterm elections to the Democrats. Next up, how the grid is changing, investing in electrical utilities and oil and gas companies can boost your portfolio. Great one here. Next up, from the Energy Newsbeat substack. Hybrid cars, a fuel-saving bridge to the future or a political outcast. And finally, Trump’s emergency order halts second power plant from closure, a win for energy reliability and your pocketbook. Next up, who will toss it over to me? I will quickly cover what happened in the oil and gas markets, mainly talking on the OPEC output hike that pretty much is going to dominate the news over the next few days. We’ll lightly touch on rig counts and U.S. Frat count spread as it relates. To where kind of the oil and gas sentiment is flowing. And finally, one of our favorite segments, M&A in oil and gas, EOG grows Utica operations with 5.6 billion in CINO acquisition. And I’ve got some really interesting thoughts on this one. We will cover all that in a bag of chips. As always, I am Michael Tanner, joined by Stuart Turley. Where do you want to begin? [00:01:33][79.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:34] Hey, let’s start with this story. Why hasn’t Trump hit Russia with more sanctions? Well, because it would have handed midterm elections to the Democrats is one good reason. Michael, I’ve been seeing this all over the place. This is critical. A push for peace talks over punitive measures. At the heart of Trump’s approach, his stated desire to broker a ceasefire deal in Ukraine, reports indicate that the president is wary of imposing new sanctions. Fearing they could derail Delegate in negotiations with President Vladimir Putin, Trump has repeatedly emphasized the sanctions might harden Putin’s stance. This is not all true. Here’s where it is really true, and that is, if the sanctions are put in place, I’m going to go through two main scenarios. If the sanctions are put on China’s refineries and India’s refinery for secondary sanctions, that will have an economic boomerang. If President Trump ignores that and kind of goes along and gets to get this done, that’s the real winner right here. The domestic problem that we’re going to see, Michael. Is the fact that energy prices and the OPEC announcement you just alluded to are going to be very impactful on the oil and gas. If President Trump puts in the tariffs, we have this real dproblem. Here’s where it gets ugly. If Congress tries to step up and force sanctions on President Putin. They’re going to meddle in this and really make it ugly and there’s rumors it’s about to happen. This is bad. [00:03:17][103.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:18] Yeah, I think you bring up a good point that sanctions don’t always lead to the desired outcome their second, third, fourth order effects. I mean, we’ve seen we’ve had now sanctions on Russia going back since the invasion. They haven’t quite seemed to work. And so really, as you bring up, I think accurately, what is actually going to cause an end to this war? And what is actually going to bring some sort of lasting peace? I think Trump is is on it now. I don’t think Personally, I don’t think Putin is negotiating in what I would say fair terms or he’s negotiating in good faith Because on one hand he’s saying yes, I want peace on the other hand He seems to be amassing more troops left right up and down on the border Ukraine is now responding not to what Putin is saying but what he’s doing and so there begins to be this intellect I mean still we we deal with this all the time when we’re negotiating oil and gas deals Somebody says one thing, but their actions say something else. And it’s up to people in the middle of the negotiations to figure out how to bridge the gap and really thread that needle, you know, so it’s no different than I think what, what Trump is dealing with when it comes to Russia. But I overall agree with your consideration that sanctions won’t work. My real question to you though, is if these sanctions don’t happen, what effects is that going to have on the oil markets? Because obviously Russia is still able to get a lot of their oil out via the dark fleet. These sanctions would, I assume, come in to try to cut and choke that supply off. We just saw your favorite Senator Lindsey Graham in Ukraine saying that they’re going after China on a 500% tariff for buying Russian oil. I mean, is that what’s next? Where do you see? [00:05:03][104.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:03] Yes. And that will win the Democrats, the house and the Senate. If Lindsey Graham gets his ways, honestly, that is absolute. That man needs to be primaried and run out of town. And my, that is absolutely pathetic. That Man does not need to be a Senator. My bully in the backyard called me up just as we were starting this podcast. And he goes, mu mu mu. As I said, the other day, Stu, hey, it’s still a bull, and, and… The OPEC has lost and OPEC plus has lost the ability to really control the market. They’re an ineffective cartel and it is because Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, and several others have gone through and they are able to print money by printing oil by drilling for oil and That is their revenue source. And the dark fleet is well over 1500 tankers right now. You can sanction them. They just cripple a few others, bring them in and Panama is even trying to stop this. Norway now has a whole new group of folks lining up on there that Russia’s running up on Norway’s border. This is ugly and president Trump does not have all the information and we I gotta keep old. Warmonger what’s his name out of negotiating this stuff because all he’s gonna do is muck it up [00:06:33][89.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:33] Yeah. No, no kidding. We’re out on Lindsey Graham theme from that segment. All right. What’s next? [00:06:38][4.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:38] He is a warmonger, oh my gosh. Let’s go to this article. I enjoyed writing this one. How the grid is changing, but investing in electrical utilities and oil and gas companies to boost your portfolio. Michael, I watch trends. And this is one I really had fun. The grid and changing investment opportunities. The grid’s evolving with focusing integrating renewables like solar wind, which now account for 30% of the electrical generation, but at what cost? This shift is driven from demand from electric vehicles, data centers, and industrial electrification from projects of 4% annual growth through 2030. That number is low. Electrical utilities are investing heavily and grid monitorization and electrical storage. The grid, Michael, is now changing to a decentralized way. And my new series on AI and the generation AI and the data centers and AI and energy is going to be critical because we’re gonna be watching data manage, energy management systems changing at worldwide speeds like you’ve never seen before. Now this opens up investment. Listen to this utilities are responding with record capital expenditures expected to reach 174 billion by the year 2024 with 42% allocated to transmission distribution lines according to Deloitte. But now why invest now diversify there are utilities are some of the best ones on the market right now Michael I don’t give advice but I’m just telling you what is out there. But you can also invest in oil and gas because they’re giving back to their stockholders. And then I also talk in here just real briefly, what’s the difference between investing in a public company and a private oil and gas company? What’s that difference, Michael? [00:08:40][121.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:40] Well, the big difference is your relationship to oil price appreciation. If you are an oil and gas bull, if you’re Stuart Turley and believe Goldman Sachs is wrong in which prices are going to go down, Stu believes prices are going go up, you should attempt to find an investment strategy that ties you specifically to the price of oil. Now, obviously, you don’t want to gamble on crude oil futures. It’s really hard to actually. Gamble on the price of oil and I say gamble for a reason because nobody should necessarily be trading crude oil futures. You should, you can, but you also shouldn’t. I don’t give investment advice. But what then you should do if over the next six months your thesis is prices will go up, finding an investment strategy that allows you to participate in the appreciation of oil and gas prices, like investing in private oil and gas companies. Whose revenue are not associated with how the capital markets feel about them, but directly with how much revenue they create, which is a function of how much oil and gas production they have and the price of oil. [00:09:48][68.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:49] Well said, Michael. In fact, you must have read the article. Well done. [00:09:52][3.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:52] It’s almost like we’ve been saying that now for five years. [00:09:55][2.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:56] Hey, let’s go to the next story here. Michael hybrid cars, a fuel saving bridge to the future or a political outcast here’s one I want to throw at everybody should president Trump consider tax credits for hybrids built in America. And I think so this article I wrote this morning in response, cause with the staff put out this morning, the great interview with Mike, Mike Umbrough and Ronald Stein on the. Energy crisis caused by Governor Newsom’s policies in California and he has now created a national security crisis. So I started thinking what’s the big deal and why can’t we get behind the hybrid? Michael, BYD, Toyota, Hyundai, and Ford have all simped out. They get over 50 miles per Alan on BYD Toyota and close in Honda. Ford is getting over 45 miles per gallon. That calculates into gigantic gasoline savings. And if we took a look at why don’t we put those in there instead of worrying about, oh you have to drive a full EV which will crash the grid. Why don’t we look at saving not burning oil and gas. That would have a greater impact. [00:11:18][81.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:18] Yeah, I love that chart you put in there, which is 2024 hybrid sales average fuel mile per gallon by manufacturer. I think it’s very fascinating. You can see BYD is crushing it. I always tend to think, Stu, we’ve got to let the free market decide. I believe that hybrids are the way of the future. I think you believe that as well, but if that’s the case, then the free market, the Adam Smith’s invisible hand that guides the market. The market will eventually land on hybrids being the option. You’ll see more companies start manufacturing them because there’s demand for them, and that’s the key. Demand will always come, not always, but generally comes before supply because as companies see and react to what their customers want, that then begins to tailor. Obviously there are certain things that you need to have some, you know, there’s this idea of you have to create a market before people will come. That is, I think, the minority. Whereas the majority of times there’s a demand for something and then companies react to that. So do I think we should have subsidies on US-made hybrids? No, I don’t, actually. I think there are, if the government is going to get involved in the economy, I don’t think hybrid cars constitute as national security or national importance. It’s just that’s what smart people, I think, are going to start doing because of the fuel mile per gallon. [00:12:37][78.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:37] Well, I like your point. That is an outstanding point. But one of the things I do want to say is I think we’re going to see the EV market come to a complete and utter change. And I think Tesla will be the survivor because Tesla is not just a EV manufacturer, it is a technology company. [00:12:55][18.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:56] Yeah, I’m not going to go. Yes, they are a technology company from the standpoint of what will most, in my opinion, what you will see is once they achieve, you know, they call it FSD now, full self-driving. It’s not quite full self driving yet. It really is. I mean, I’ve driven. I’ve been in Ubers where the driver is in a Tesla. And they say, hey, do you want to see the full self drive? And we want to say, yeah. And they flip it on. And these people are turning around talking to me. Hands are off the wheel. It’s pretty incredible actually. So it really is full self-driving. So the point is I think that technology will eventually end up being licensed to other companies like Ford, like GM, so that they can integrate that into their cars. Now the part that I find interesting is that how Tesla creates their full self driving is by the use of cameras. Most companies don’t use cameras. They use sonar and there’s a reason why Elon and Tesla went down the camera route and other companies went down the sonar route. It has a lot to do with money and time. But from an accuracy standpoint, you can’t lie and say that cameras are better than sonar because cameras see everything. If a ball, if you know the classic you’re driving down a road and a little kid’s basketball runs onto the street, well sonar might pick that up. It might not quite correctly. Whereas cameras, I mean, you have the image. So now you just have to train the image on recognition. There’s another suite of problems there. But in the end, in the long arc of how this technology is going, I think the camera system will win, which is why I think Tesla will win when it comes to full self-driving. And why I agree with you, I think in the in Tesla will when I don’t think they will migrate away from the electric vehicle aspect of it because I think what they’re and Elon understands. Is that, I mean, he is oddly in still on solar, which I think we need, there’s a discussion that needs to be had with Elon about his love for solar, but EVs in and of themselves aren’t bad. It’s just, don’t think that buying an EV is making you green because you’re plugging it into a grid that’s 70% powered by fossil fuels. [00:15:03][126.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:03] Yep, and, and it’s adding more burden and insurance costs. So let’s go to the next story here. Last story for me on this one, Michael today, Trump emergency order halts a power plant closure, a win for energy reliability. I got to hand this to secretary Chris Wright again. Again, he’s hitting it out of the park. President Donald Trump is issued an emergency order to prevent the closure of a second. Power plant, the Eddie Eddystone generating plant in Pennsylvania operated by Constellation Energy Group. This decision announced May 30th comes days just after a similar order kept the J.H. Campbell power plant in Michigan operating past its scheduled shutdown. Both highlight the administration’s focused on bolstering energy reliability amid demand grid stability concerns. Michael, the grid is in crisis mode right now. And crisis mode, after my an analyzation of what is going on in the next few years on our grid, we got to keep every power plant we can open. And this just shows the smartness of the Trump administration getting this done. [00:16:11][68.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:12] Yeah, I agree. I think the fact that they’re halting this from closing, as you said, is a win for energy reliability. I think to Trump administration is taking the right approach that American energy dominance is national security. And I think this entire idea flows into, I think what I want to talk about when we get to OPEC, but I’ll save that for, I love how you highlight this, it’s really a race against blackouts. I mean, we saw Aircott and the FERC come out and say, hey, we’re pretty sure we’re gonna have a few days when we’re going to be, demand’s gonna be bigger than supply. I mean that’s scary. That should freak people out. [00:16:50][38.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:16:50] Okay. Do you know what the difference between Spain and the United States is? We have secretary Chris Wright and president Donald Trump. They don’t. True. It’s true. [00:17:01][10.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:02] All right, well, let’s jump over and touch upon some oil and gas specific things guys before we do that quickly Let’s pay the bills as always news and analysis brought to you by energy newsbeat.com The best place for all your energy and oil and Gas analysis go ahead and hit that description below all links to the time stamps links to The articles check us out the energy news beat.substack.com. It’s probably the best Place to find our original thoughts when it comes to all these different stuff We drop one crisp, clean post a day, which walks through some of our feelings on some of the latest happenings in the business. I, this week, will also be releasing our first in our oil and gas research, where we become your personal oil and guest analyst. The first one is why IRR is a scam, and I have some really very interesting charts to show you why. I think everyone who’s using IRR to evaluate oil and guests projects is doing themselves a disservice, so check that out, the energy newsbeat. Also, thank you to Reese Energy Consulting for sponsoring the show and making it possible. We love Reese Energy consulting guys. If you are at all, if you work in the midstream space and you need help with anything, they’re a great resource. They’ve worked with every company from one guy in a garage all the way up to the biggest publicly traded companies in the mainstream space. So they have experience at all different levels. If you’re in the upstream space and your not working with an oil and gas marketing company you’re losing. Dollars on dollars on dollars not working with a marketing company from the standpoint of they will go out to your first purchasers Negotiate better contracts. They will go to your purchasors get you dollars back on all the barrels you so highly recommend We love Reese energy consulting Reese energy Consulting calm tell them energy news beat sent you and finally guys Invest in oil that energy newsbeat calm is a great place to go If you’re wondering if you should be adding oil and gas to your portfolio. We have a great survey. That’s up there where it walks through where you think oil prices might go, some of the other considerations that take. And in the end, it tells you, do you think or is oil and gas investing for you? And at the end of it, once you fill it out, we send you a great ebook that walks you through kind of all the different which ways you can invest in the oil and gas business. So check that out, investinoil.energynewsbeat.com. [00:19:15][133.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:19] Let’s do, let’s jump over and quickly touch on some, some top line indices here. S&P 500 flat NASDAQ was flat 2 in 10 year yields down 1 percentage and 6 tenths of a percentage point Bitcoin has fallen a little bit. It’s still sitting at 105 at a hundred five thousand So falling is relative crude oil was down about a half a percentage. Point on Friday 60 79 Brent oil was down two point one percentage point 6255 we’re down a dollar 35 that spread between Brent and crude oil is actually getting very close Which is something very interesting here natural gas sitting at three dollars and 46 cents, that was down about two percentage points or about seven cents. Day over day XOP, which are EMP securities contract, I was down 1.35 percentage points. The big news on Friday though, was the market was bracing for a possible OPEC output hike. That week over week was down about a percent on WTI. Mainly that was the, the market reacting to that. A nd we will lightly touch on what OPECs decided yesterday, but we also did see rig counts drop by three. Interesting enough Stu we did see the frac count spread increase by four which means there were some frac rigs added back to the market which you know is the first time really in in a month we’ve seen that and a little bit different than I think what people are expecting I mean with rigs dropping and frac rids coming back online to me what that signaling is that there’s either to me with that signals is this is most likely the big big oil companies negotiating massive discounts with their frac providers. I mean, I think there’s, there’s it’s, there’s very little reason to believe that smaller oil and gas companies who are buying what are called spec frac rigs, which are, they’re just not speculating, but they’re called spec rigs from the standpoint of they’re just going out and fracking one well at a time. And then sending that and releasing that rig somewhere else versus these larger companies where they’re negotiating, hey, we’re gonna go, you know, we are gonna go buy, you know, Liberty rig, you Liberty crew for, and we’re going to get them for 10 different, you know, the next 10 wells we’re gonna frack and they’re renegotiate discount. So I have, I have a good sense, right? You know, talking to my industry connection, Stu, you’re not the only one with connections in this business that that’s more the case relative to why the frack count spread is increased, but nonetheless, great to see, you know, as on Friday, the market was reacting to what OPEC was going to do yesterday, we did find out in, in fact, OPEC is going to increase oil production by another 411,000 barrels per day as they begin to continue to unwind cuts. What everyone is saying, Stu, and this is where I have a little bit of beef with the overall media and have a bit of a beef with just kind of your fly-by-night analysts, people who haven’t necessarily been in this business for that long, reporters or people who just cover the surface level, there’s the same old quotes that are being thrown out there. Oh. OPEC’s increasing because they want market share. OPEC increasing because they’re trying to hurt other nations. I think possibly number two is more correct. I don’t believe OPEC is worried about market share at all on this point. What I believe, and I think what the tea leaves are reading is that OPEC is doing this to appease America and appease Trump. If they can give Trump his $55 oil, Trump then in turn, and this is not a quid pro quo, but more an unspoken OPEC has the ability to drop prices as low as they want. They are drop prices to Trump’s stated goal, friend of the show, Chris Wright, stated goal of $55 oil, then in turn, it makes it a lot easier for these Gulf states to do business in the United States. What have we seen in the last two weeks? You know, trillions of dollars of investment now in our energy infrastructure, which I’m saying I’m not actually theoretically. Very much in due because we talk about energy security and now all of a sudden we’re letting all of these foreign countries own our national security infrastructure if we truly believe energy is national security we probably should be worried about that but I’ve complained about that enough where I think that the reason why OPEC is increasing production is because they want to throw a bone to America and really a bone of President Trump so that somewhere down the road, whether it’s they can get access to more arms. In terms of military technology, whether they and whether the Abraham Accords come back, but for some, but give Trump a bone so that later on down the line, they get something in return. And I don’t think as much to do with oil specifically as it does to do with appeasement on their end. What say you Stu? [00:23:55][276.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:23:56] I can see your point, but I also think that they do not have control over their producers. I’m going to go a little bit more simply that whatever they do, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela will pump as much as they possibly can in order to fill their coffers whatever they need. So I think… That there have been a lot of talking heads out there that have said OPEC may be gone as a cartel. So I think I agree. I like that you’re where your thought process is going, but I think it’s simply, they don’t have control. [00:24:34][38.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:24:34] Well, and that’s more reasonable than they’re trying to put US shale out of business. Anybody who says that, which is if you read our friends over at Reuters, you go read oilprice.com, that’s what they are. That’s level one. That’s Level 1 of just, oh, that’s what they said in 2016. Well, it’s not 2016 anymore. It’s 2025. We’ve moved on now 10 years down the road now. We’ve got to come up with a new shtick. And I think the shtic is, yes, there’s overproduction. But let’s not mistake OPEC is Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia is OPEc. I mean, there’s really, if OPECs, if Saudi Arabia doesn’t want OPEcs to exist, then OPECS doesn’t really exist. So I think Saudi Arabia wants to curry favor with the Trump administration. And in doing so, if they can help drive oil prices to Trump’s stated goal of 55, they believe it’ll help them down in the future. We’ll slightly disagree on that, but that’s where- [00:25:27][52.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:25:27] Can I throw this as a thing? Saudi Arabia is, Saudi Aramco is looking at bringing on debt so that they can pay their portion of the kingdom’s money right now. So as Saudi Arramco is looking to take on debt, the only way the Saudi leadership would allow that to happen is if they firmly believe oil prices are going up. And that’s one of the key reasons that I think that my bully in the backyard is going, look at Saudi Arabia. They may be borrowing money to pay their, their kingdom price. Oh, well, do they do anything for that? No, that’s a short-term pain and they know oil is going up. [00:26:06][39.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:26:07] Well, absolutely. I think that would accurately play into my thesis that they’re not doing this for market share. They’re not going this for any other reason than currying favor with the Trump administration. But that’s definitely something, Stu, we need to be watching and paying attention. Finally, guys, in the oil and gas investment front, EOG Resources grows its Utica operations with $5.6 billion in CINO. Energy acquisition this is from our good good friend of the show Nathan hammers sub stack I’d highly recommend you go check out and subscribe to his sub stack He’s he’s does some awesome stuff. So EOG what they did is they jumped in and bought in Sino Energy, so in SINO energy is a privately backed oil and gas company operating in the Utica Which is actually next to the Marcellus on the East Coast Ironically, you know who the biggest shareholder in Encino Acquisition Partners, which is the holding company, is, Stu? Who do you think it is? Warrant? No, the Canadian Teachers Pension Association. I did not have that on my bingo card this month. No, no, no. But it goes to show everyone in Canada’s, oh, anti-energy, anti energy, yet there’s still some of their largest investments are still in. In energy. So they cash out big. They had 600, they, you know, EOG in this acquisition acquires 675,000 acres in the Utica, which brings their total up to 1.1 million acres to develop. There was also some, some very interesting, interesting points here that Nathan brings up. This is a huge boon for the local economy. It’s expected for EOG to also raise their dividend to a dollar per share. It is something we talked about in the second stories do about why. Investing in oil and gas is interesting. If you are a dividend focused stock investor, if we go back to the second article, Stu, I just wanna point this out in the research that you showed, S&P 500 average dividend yield is 1.5 where energy dividend yields are three to 4%. So you have a much better opportunity of investing in companies with dividends looking at energy than you don’t. I do think this is really interesting. It’s about a, it’s an all cash deal. They’re going to fund it specifically with 50% of cash on hand and 50% debt, but it’s a great liquidity event, specifically for Encino Acquisition Partners and our good friends at Canada. I know we make fun of you guys a lot, but we love you. We love you up there. You know, EOG has been sort of waiting to make a acquisition here. The quote from CEO Ezra Jacob, this deal brings together Prime Land and the UG making it a key part of what we do at EOG. It helps us grow. Our ability to produce energy in smart, sustainable way. Wow, IR guy of the week right there for whoever made that. Produce energy in a smart, sustainable way, IR Guy of the Week right there. Holy smokes. And what’s very interesting though, is that EOG is gonna have a basically 20% more control in how the Utica is developed, which is super interesting. As we know EOG is one of the largest private operators in the space. So they’re gonna be able to continue to push this. So highly recommend checking this article out on Nathan’s Substack. And I think this will be a very interesting, interesting one to watch. Stu, time for my favorite segment of the week. What are you worried about coming up? [00:29:20][193.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:29:20] I’m really not worried about too much right now. I’m watching when my bully in the backyard is going to be right. So I think it’s a few months out, but I think we’re on track. [00:29:30][9.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:29:30] I love it. So with that, guys, we’re going to go and let you get out of here. Get back to work. Start your week. Appreciate you starting with Energy Newsbeat for Stuart Turley. I’m Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:29:30][0.0][1746.4]

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