Trump Reshapes Renewables

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:10] What’s going on everybody? Welcome into the Monday, March 17th, 2025 edition of the Daily Energy Newsbeat. Stand up. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, EPA unleashes 31 actions to overturn Biden and Obama era regulation. Boost American power. Next up, EPA unleashes 31 actions to overturn Biden and Obama era regulation. Boost American power sitting on the Trump theme. Will Trump use the Federal Reserve as leverage too? Yikes. Guyana oil exports skyrocket and Europe refiners love it. We’ll also talk a little bit of what Guyana is doing, trying to link up there with Suramine, some super interesting stuff. And finally, we can’t not talk a little Putin. Putin wants to sell more Russian gas to Europe. The question is, can he stool then toss it? I will quickly cover what happened in the oil and gas markets, mainly put a bow on what was kind of a crazy week when it comes to oil prices, talk a little bit about where rig counts goes and finish the week there. As always, I am Michael Tanner, joined by Stuart Turley. Where do you want to begin? [00:01:14][63.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:16] over there. EPA unleashes 31 actions to overturn Biden and Obama error regulations, boost American power. This is following up on President Trump’s commitment to cut consumer energy or the energy prices by half. Now, how he defines that is yet to be seen, but listen to this. We’re driving a dagger straight into the heart of the climate change religion to drive down the cost of living for American families and unleash American energy to bring auto jobs back to the US and more. This is really important because it’s going to go after, Michael, is reconsidering its risk management program, the RMP rule. RMP, yes, that is correct, rule claiming the press release that rule made America’s oil and natural gas refineries and chemical facilities less safe. That rule is about really the core mission and what they’re trying to say is that fossil fuels are bad because of CO2. That’s what it’s all coming down to is CO2 a pollution. Well, CO2 is actually plant food. Now, is it the particulate matter? And this is where I want everybody to really start really getting a grip on. And coal with clean technology is not as bad because it’s the particulate matter that’s the pollution, not the CO2. Plants love CO2. Let’s go after the particulate matter and get it cleaner. Does that make sense? [00:02:43][87.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:43] Yeah, no, I’m completely with you there. And I think, you know, as you always talked about regulation through legislation, this is a quick, easy way to remove that we’ve already seen with the Chevron, the overturning of Chevron deference that, you know, these, these deregulation aspects are going to be much more helpful from the EPA. I love this quote here, how the EPA touted, it will be the biggest deregulatory action in U S history, value to give the lower cost of living for Americans and quote, give power back to the to make their own decision. I can’t argue much with that. Love that. [00:03:15][32.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:16] No, in fact, it’s going to be we’re going to see that your vote matters in your states. And as the education departments come back to the states, as your energy policies go, you will see the states that succeed will be anybody other than New York, Delaware, New Jersey, California, because follow the energy policies and follow the money. Let’s go to the next story. Absolutely. A Trump energy policies reshape the renewable sector. This one was an interesting article. Trump administration declared a national emergency, which Chris Wright has stepped up. He’s hit it out of the park. Talk about a energy cheerleader. He’s out there just going, go energy. Yay. And the tensions rise in Oval Office talks because the negotiations took a bad turn. televised between President Zelensky and President Trump on the geopolitical problem with renewable energy is critical minerals. China has the supply chain and President Trump is trying to secure our critical mineral supply chain and that’s what this article is all about. [00:04:27][71.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:28] Yeah, I mean, you know, on top of what he’s trying to, like you said, do with Ukraine and bring those minerals home, you know, I watched this video where where Josh Hawley was was quizzing some people specifically on what was going on. And, you know, all of our minerals, you know, none of the minerals, none of the refining capacity, none of this stuff is actually done here at America. So the fact that we’re declaring a national emergency through this is, I think, critical because of the fact of, you know, if we end up in five years in a hot war with China, well, guess We have none of the manufacturing capacity, none of the minerals ourselves, and it makes it more. Now, with the interesting part. Now, this is where tariffs do come into play, in my opinion, in a good way, is that it forces companies to decide whether or not to manufacture things abroad or at home. If there’s a 25% tariff on things manufactured overseas, maybe it makes sense to go ahead and maybe it incentivizes them to build up here. The problem is a company’s not going to spend a billion dollars to build a manufacturing facility. If they know the tariffs are on, then they’re off. If they’re on, they’re off. There needs to be some stability. So I do think it’s interesting, but I do like the fact that they’re doing this national emergency. [00:05:40][72.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:40] Oh, absolutely. And so the pollution controls where this also comes into play is the critical minerals. President Zelensky was rumored to have given away the critical minerals in Ukraine to the UK as well as the EU. So I don’t know that there’s much money that is in that deal. So President Trump needs to be careful. Let’s go to the next one. He really does. Will Trump use the Federal Reserve as leverage, too? I thought this was an interesting article from normally a left-leaning publication from Christopher Smart, the Arbogat Roth Group. It is very interesting when you consider the only institution can create dollars is the Fed, which was established in 1913 as established swap lines for federal banks that have been critical in meeting sudden demand for dollars and calming global financial markets and time of panic. Here’s the problem, Michael. And as we go through this, there is a unwillingness of the Fed to be audited. They do not want to be audited. And I think that you’re seeing as President Trump sets up minerals, he sets up the gold. There has been more gold coming into the United States than in the history. Is it because they’re about to do the audit on Fort Knox? Is it because he’s looking at going back to a different standard and get rid of the Fed. All of President Trump’s actions are aligning to get rid of the Fed, a privately held company that is printing US dollars should go away in my opinion. And that’s what I think we’re seeing. That’s why this article is pretty important. And I thought it was pretty important from a left-leaning side of the fence. [00:07:28][107.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:28] Yeah. I mean, you know, when, when, when you, my only issue is that if you use the fed as a weapon that we’ve seen what happens in the financial crisis, when you try to use the fed to backstop bad policy, you end up in the situation where, I mean, the, the inflation that we saw from 2015 or really 2020 to now is solely due to what they did in, in retrospect in the financial So getting it, you know, having the executive branch too involved with the Fed defeats the purpose of the Fed, in my opinion. [00:08:03][34.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:03] But there are a lot of things that we can do on this and you can’t why tax us if you can print money. That’s why you sit back and kind of go, you don’t need my money if you’re just going to go print money. So you got to get back to how we before 1912, how we had so much wealth. Let’s go to the next story. Guyana’s oil exports skyrocket and the Europe refineries love it. I love this from the standpoint that Guyana’s oil production exports are without exceeding 660,000 barrels per day and are expecting to reach, excuse me, 1.3 million barrels by 2030. Europe is the biggest buyer of Guyana’s crew with 66% of exports heading there in 2024. ExxonMobil and partners are expanding operations and planning gas to shore operations. You’re seeing a lot of overseas, in fact, China is there drilling as well too. So when you sit back and take a look at who all’s there, this is a big bone for the local Guyana market. And I really applaud everything about it. [00:09:12][68.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:12] Well, we hope so. We hope this ends up filtering down to the, the, the, the Guyanese people. It should, it should, but we, you know, you know, [00:09:21][9.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:21] There’s a, there’s a lot around that. And, and, and talking with NJ Anuk, who’s the head of the African energy chamber. I’ll be talking to him again, fairly soon. And there are some great things going on in Africa for Africa first. And I’m, I’m all, all in on it. [00:09:39][18.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:40] Absolutely. Absolutely. Ghana is expected to also start talking with Surmine about creating some natural gas processing facilities. A lot of the oil’s coming out on the Guyana side, but a lot of the natural gas is actually coming out of the Surmine side. So together they could make a huge powerhouse. But no, I mean, it’s clear Guyana and it is seen as a growth engine. We know Exxon is trying to get on or, you know, Exxon’s in on that by having that huge stake in there. Chevron’s trying to get in on that by acquiring Hess. We’ll know more about that here in the next coming months. but I think it’s super fascinating. What do you got next? [00:10:11][31.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:11] Let’s go to Putin. Hey, that’s my, that’s my Fozzy Putin imitation there. Hey, you want more? Yeah. Putin wants to sell more Russian gas to Europe, can he? But the real question is, and is Europe critical to his plan is the real question. Michael, what has really happened when you take a look, this is a great article from Bloomberg and in here, Russian Putin seems to be confident that pipeline flows of natural gas could be stepped up if US brokered deal and Ukraine is, is agreed there. The EU is still buying Russian natural gas, although a lot lower president Putin has shifted all of his markets to Asia. His GDP growth in 2024 grew 4% Michael. There’s a lot of countries that would love to have a 4%. That’s what even all of the sanctions president Putin does not need Europe. All President Putin has to do is do nothing. Now take the EU. If they don’t get the German cheap Russian natural gas, they’re going to be even in more financial fiscal trouble. And I don’t think that they’re going to turn it back on because they’re too stupid, but that’s my opinion. [00:11:28][76.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:28] No, I completely well, you are Putin’s chief of staff, so I’m going to trust you. [00:11:33][5.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:33] Well, I don’t know if he’s a good guy or a bad guy, but I know that he has done more good things for Russia and Russia first. I would like to see that kind of leadership for U.S. and America first. The world would not be where we are now if we had an America first anyway. The one thing I do want to say is I’m going to be interviewing Jeff Kreml here real soon about a lot of the talk that you and I have been kind of talking about is, is the Permian dead yet? Or is this going to be a Monty Python skit going, I’m not quite dead yet with an arrow in its chest. I don’t know, but we’re going to do some research and we’re going to be putting that podcast out here in a bit. We got to get our numbers together. Thank you for watching! [00:12:18][44.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:18] No, absolutely. But no, that’ll be good. Let’s go ahead and jump over to finance guys. But before we do that, let’s quickly pay the bills as always. Thank you for checking us out here on the world’s greatest website, energynewsbeat.com, the best place for all your energy and oil and gas news. Stu and the team do a tremendous job making sure that website stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business. Go ahead and hit that description below for all links to the timestamps, links to the articles. Go ahead and also click on link to sign up for our substack, theenergynewsbeat.substack.com, the best way to support the show. If you do feel so inclined, go ahead and subscribe for a paid subscription. Stu is dropping a host of paid only articles, which are awesome. We’ve got a few research papers that we’ve both dropped and that we will begin to drop. And also thank you to a wonderful sponsor of the show, Reese Energy Consulting. Guys, for all your natural gas, LNG and marketing needs, check out Reese Energy Consulting. They do great work. They’ve got great training through Reese Energy training. So if you guys need training on all different markets, anything guys, go ahead and hit that link in the description below to go check them out. And as always guys, if you are interested in becoming Billy Bob Thornton from Landman, go ahead and fill out investinoilenergynewsbeat.com the best way to get a little bit of a head on your 2025 taxes. Everybody needs a little bit of a tax break, especially if you’ve got active income deductions that’s cooling about oil and gas, It’s tax deductible on active income side. Need a little bit of a monthly distribution. And of course, want to be Billy Bob Thornton from Landman investing in oil and gas is the best way. We’ll send you a bunch of resources on how we love to do it. [00:13:52][94.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:52] Let’s go ahead and jump over Stu and look at the markets here. I mean, the week was down, but Friday was actually really good. S&P 500 was up 2.1 percentage points. NASDAQ 2.5 percentage points. Two and 10 year yields were actually up 1.6 and 1.7 dollar index, flat Bitcoin down about a percent over the weekend as we record this mid morning here on Sunday, 83,000 crude oil was actually app a full percentage point 67 18 Brent oil was up about two eighths or two tenths of a percentage point. Natural gas was basically flat sitting at $4 and 11 cents. I mean, I mean a tough week, you know, you know, really the oil being up has a lot to do with the uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine ceasefire. It seemed to be, it was off the table. It was on the table. It’s kind of like tariffs. It was on the table. It was off the table. Now it’s back on the table. Who knows what’s going to happen? There was an agreed upon ceasefire and then there was a bunch of drone attacks in Moscow. So who knows what’s going to happen? Putin’s now back in Kiev. So, you know, he’s trying now to change it. We did see some EIA reports that came up that said supply is actually expected to exceed demand by somewhere around 600,000 barrels per day in 2025. Not, not the best bullish sign for oil and gas specific. I think that’s also impacting what’s going on specifically with oil. And that comes out of our favorite agency, the International Energy Agency or the IEA. And obviously what they’re saying is that supply is increasing as expected, but demand isn’t growing as expected. So that’s where they’re seeing that on that side. We also did see Baker Hughes come out with their rig count basically flat week over week. And I think the interesting part to think about is what does that mean for production growth? Everyone’s saying, you know, U.S. is still continuing to grow. You know, we’ve heard, you know, we hear Trump say drill baby drill. They want to bring prices down to 50. You know, Chris Wright says he wants to bring prices down to 50 and I do find that very interesting because Chris Wright is this former CEO of one of the largest oil field service companies ought to know that at $50 oil, his former employer is not going to be doing well. Can’t be doing well. There’s very little drilling that will happen at $50 oil, let alone $60 oil. So I think what we’re seeing in the rig count is people adjusting to a lower price environment where there’s not going to be much new drilling. Now there’s still 562 rigs out there, Stu, so let’s be clear. There’s still drilling happening, but the growth and as we know, declines happen on these new horizontal wells and adding one new rig or not adding rigs, but having declining profiles of these wells leads to overall declining production. So at some point we’ll roll over now. Will that be now? The counter to that argument is, well, we’re now drilling three mile lateral to the point where we need less rigs and we can drill more laterals and we get more oil per well. Okay, I think that remains to be seen from a cost standpoint, even at $50, $60 oil. So, I mean, what do you see it, Stu? [00:16:58][185.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:16:58] I think that it all comes down to the bottom line of supply and demand may come back once we get back past some of this stuff. The old rules of supply and demand may come back into more realistic review of pricing. Look at natural gas right now. It’s $4.08 right now. And so as the time we’re recording this on Sunday. And so when you sit back and take a look at supply and demand, you take a look at natural gas. Natural gas is what’s a pesky oversight in many ways, but it is now a major commodity. And when you sit back and take a look at normal decline curves, we need trillions of dollars globally in order to meet normal decline curves. Demand is not going away anytime soon. I’m a bull. Now, am I a huge $90 bull? No. Am I in the 80s? Yes. I still think it’s going to be $80 oil because of the global oil supply and the global… I mean, President Trump just bombed the crap out of the Houthis yesterday, and that’s going to free up some of the Red Sea traffic and everything else because I think they’re going to quit being terrorists. So you’ve got a geopolitical thing going on right now. [00:18:20][81.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:20] Yeah, I’m going to disagree with you on $80 oil. I think if we see $80 oil in 2025, it’ll be a miracle. And I think we’re more likely to see $60 to $70 oil than we are. I mean, $60 to $70 is still not terrible, especially for your more conventional oil and gas drillers. I think your shale and the Permian is going to be hurt at those numbers. And I don’t think you’ll see the growth, but I think it will be interesting. And you know, I mean, if you’re predicting a little war in 2025, then yeah, we’ll see $80 oil if you, you know, but, well, Stu’s always predictable. Stu’s doom and gloom. And speaking of that, what are you worried about this week, Stu? My favorite segment of the week. [00:18:56][35.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:56] Oh, what is my favorite segment of the week, or what am I really, I buckle up. I think God’s got this and we don’t need to worry about it. Just try to take care of your family, keep your head on a swivel, and make sure that men protect women. Absolutely, absolutely. [00:19:14][17.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:14] All right, guys. Well, with that, we’re going to go and let you get out of here. Get back to work and start your week. We appreciate you guys starting out your week with the Energy Newsbeat for all your needs. Again, check us out energynewsbeat.com. But for Stuart Turley, I’m Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:19:14][0.0][1135.9]

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