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By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Sales of non-Tesla EVs in California soared by 19% year-over-year in Q4 2024, and by 113% from two years ago, to a record 50,616 vehicles, surpassing Tesla sales for the first time.
But Tesla sales in California dropped in Q4 to 43,658 vehicles, the lowest since Q3 2022, down by nearly 8% from a year ago, and down by 17% from two years ago, according to vehicle registrations released by the California new vehicle dealer association CNCDA.
For Tesla, this is a mess. California is its largest market in the US. Tesla was still the #2 automaker in California, behind Toyota, for 2024, but its market share in Q4 shrank to 10.1%, the lowest since Q2 2022. Its Model Y remained by far the #1 bestseller in the state, with nearly twice as many sales as the #2 bestseller, the Toyota RAV4. But sales of the Model 3, formerly the #2 bestseller in the state, have plunged, and that’s where the big decline came from.
On an annual basis, the overall auto market in California stalled in 2024, with registrations of ICE vehicles and EVs combined dipping a hair to 1.78 million, well below the 2 million range in 2015 through 2018 (yellow in the chart below).
ICE vehicles, including hybrids and plugin hybrids, dipped by 0.7% to 1.37 million vehicles in 2024, down by 31% since 2016 (blue).
EV sales ticked up by 1.2%, despite the 11.6% drop in Tesla sales in 2024. Since 2016, EV sales have soared about 10-fold, at the expense of ICE vehicles. For the whole year, EV market share inched up to 22.0%, despite the Tesla mess.
Tesla’s global sales in 2024 fell by 1.1% to 1.789 million vehicles, according to Tesla in early January, which made us wonder at the time just how overvalued Tesla’s stock was, as its EV growth story is now over, and it’s instead running on Musk’s promises and predictions. Ah we know, the robotaxis again. But Tesla hasn’t even applied for a permit to operate robotaxis in California, according to the San Francisco Examiner.
By brand, the top market-share leaders stayed in place, but some lost share, while other gained share in 2024:
Toyota expanded its share to 16.4% (from 15.7%), but its share remains far below the 21% range in the years before the arrival of Tesla’s Model Y, which quickly became the #1 bestseller in California and ate Toyota’s lunch.
Tesla’s share, while still #2, dropped to 11.6% (from 13.0%). Honda, #3, is closing in on Tesla with a share of 10.9% (up from 9.7%). Ford’s share, #4, declined to 7.4% (from 7.7%), and Chevrolet’s share, #5, declined to 6.2% (from 6.7%):
By Model, the top market share leaders changed. The Tesla Model Y remained by far the #1 bestselling vehicle in the state, even as sales dipped a little year-over-year. But sales of the Model 3 plunged by 35%, knocking the model down into #4 position, from #2 last year.
Sales of the Toyota RAV4 and Camry both rose, and both moved up one notch, surpassing the Model 3. Sales of the Honda Civic and CR-V both rose, and they remained in #5 and #6 position respectively.
EV rankings. Tesla’s Cybertruck hasn’t made it into the top 15 of the overall models yet, far from it, but sales rose to 9,019 trucks in 2024, and so within the EV models, it rose to #5 bestselling EV. The Ford Lightning pickup (5,590) didn’t make it into the top 10 EVs.
- Tesla Model Y (128,923)
- Tesla Model 3 (53,056)
- Hyundai Ioniq 5 (16,879)
- Ford Mustang Mach-E (10,874)
- Tesla Cybertruck (9,019
- Rivian R1S SUV (8,721)
- Tesla Model X (8,585)
- BMW i4 (8,396
- Honda Prologue (6,955) made by GM as the Chevy Blazer because Honda doesn’t have an EV.
- BMW iX (6,027).
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The post Tesla Sales Got Crushed in Q4 in California, its Largest US Market. Non-Tesla EV Sales Jumped to a Record. ICE Vehicle Sales Dipped appeared first on Energy News Beat.
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