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The container shipping freight market has felt like a game of snakes and ladders since the pandemic. Shippers negotiate the trade board, hoping to make steady progress. Sometimes the rates they pay climb exponentially up a ladder for a while, for instance when the pandemic and the Red Sea crisis caused elevated rates. Occasionally the market slips on a snake and freight rates slide back toward the long-term average.
In January, Yemen’s Houthi militia generously offered to stop attacking commercial shipping sailing under most flags. Freight rate expectations (and futures) are falling as confidence grows that the Suez Canal route from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean will become viable once again. The Freightos rate assessment from China to the Med stood at $5,075 per feu on January 24, down 4% on the week and 11% over four weeks. On the related China to North Europe voyage, rates stood at $4,122 per feu on January 24, which was 12% lower than on January 17 and 17% lower than on December 27.
A bigger snake for rates to slide down lurks in Washington DC where Donald Trump continues to threaten to charge import tariffs on goods arriving from overseas. Most US non-energy imports arrive in shipping containers and the transpacific market stands to be most affected. Last year, US containerised imports were 28.2m teu, a 13% increase over 2023. Around four in 10 of those imports came from China. December containerised imports were 2.38m teu, just below the nation’s 2.4m teu monthly capacity and only the third month on record when imports exceeded 2.3m teu. Imports from China increased in December by 1.7% monthly and by 14.5% year on year to 903,000 teu. These numbers will not please Darth Orange.
Despite the massive import figures, freight rates from China to the US west coast fell from a monthly average of $5,200 in November to $4,300 in December, but so far in January they are back on the ladder, averaging $5,528. On the all-water service from China to the US east coast, rates averaged $5,500 in November, $5,700 in December and for January so far they average $6,801. Invading Panama to control its canal might not make these rates fall. Previous attempts to reshore manufacturing to the US have enjoyed limited success and have not staunched the flow of imports, so it looks like the tariffs will surely come.
Since the global financial crisis, US GDP has approximately doubled from $14trn to $28trn. In that time, EU GDP has grown from $16trn to $18trn. The EU manufacturing powerhouse, Germany, is entering its third year of recession. The European Commission published a long report which identified a lack of competition between EU members and too much bureaucracy as the main reasons for this woeful performance. The solution that Ursula von der Leyen proposes includes more pan-European legislation such as a single capital market. Maybe it will work.
Trade data meanwhile continues to underperform. European containerised exports stood at an estimated (some data still to come in) 2.27m teu for December 2024, lower than 2.30m teu in November and 2.35m teu in December 2023. Full year 2024 exports were an estimated 27.6m teu compared to 27.2m in 2023 but lower than in any year between 2018 and 2022 when they averaged 29.9m teu. The EU’s main export market is North America. Freight rates on the westbound transatlantic voyage were $2,172 on January 24, down 14% since December 27. The January to date average of $2,212 is the lowest since $1,841 in September. On the eastbound transatlantic voyage, rates average $600 in January, their best performance since October. Trump will doubtless want to see the gap close further.
In Q1 this year several alliances are reshuffling their members. Maersk is leaving its 2M alliance with MSC and entering into the Gemini Cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd. The latter is leaving THE Alliance whose members will now include MSC on Asia-Europe routes, along with Ocean Network Express (ONE), HMM and Yang Ming Marine Transportation as global partners. The grouping will also change its name to the Premier Alliance from next month. The only grouping remaining intact come February 1, the Ocean Alliance, made up of COSCO, OOCL, CMA CGM and Evergreen, will also be the one with the largest market share and widest market coverage this year, according to analysis from Linerlytica, an Asia-based container shipping consultancy.
The time charter market is correspondingly busy as operators shuffle their pieces on the board. Meanwhile the fleet continued its remorseless growth. As of mid-January, consultancy Alphaliner reported 7,226 active containerships comprising 31.65m teu. Out of these, 6,327 ships are fully cellular; these ships have combined capacity of 31.23m teu. The fleet has grown at approximately one ship per day since 2023 and the orders keep coming with CMA CGM and Cardiff Marine leading the newbuilding charge so far this year. In a deglobalised world of trade blocs, near-abroads and conflict zones, what is the right size ship to build? And with a global shipping regulator attempting to drive one size fits all emissions rules, what is the right fuel choice? Owners need all the wisdom and intuition of the Chinese zodiac’s snake to know the answers to those questions.
The post Containers: Snakes and ladders appeared first on Energy News Beat.
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