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Austin, Oakland, New Orleans, San Francisco, Washington D.C., New York City, Detroit, Seattle, Portland, Tampa.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
We talk a lot about “home prices in the US” – rising or falling or whatever, as if the US were one monolithic market. But the US spans a vast number of housing markets that all dance to their own drummer, though they all share some underlying themes. The long-running Wolf Street series, The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles of America, currently charts 33 of the largest metropolitan areas with the highest home prices. Those metros are huge and diverse. Some cover parts of several states and comprise multiple counties.
So here are the largest cities – not metros – with the biggest price declines from their respective peaks in 2021, 2022, or 2023, for single-family houses and separately for condos and co-ops.
The double-digit decliners: For single-family houses, 4 of those cities have price declines between 15% and 19% from their respective peaks in mid-2022. For condos and co-ops, 6 of these cities have prices declines between 12% and 21%.
These prices here are seasonally adjusted and a three-month moving average to iron out the month-to-month squiggles. They’re part of the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) data, based on the Zillow Database of All Homes. These are not median prices.
The biggest cities with the biggest price declines of single-family houses.
The metrics include: price decline from their peak, change from prior month (MoM), change year-over-year (YoY), and increase since January 2000.
| Austin, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -19.2% | -0.5% | -3.4% | 182.6% |
Despite this big fast drop, prices are only back where they’d first been during the price explosion in June 2021. Easy come, easy go here, but prices are downward sticky. They exploded by 38% in two years. And then, in two-and-a-half years, prices gave up only about half of that:
| Oakland, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -17.2% | -0.3% | -4.3% | 312.7% |
Prices are back where they’d first been in October 2020. Between June 2012 and the peak in May 2022, prices had tripled, which is nuts.
| New Orleans, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2007 |
| -16.7% | 0.2% | -4.5% | 86% |
Prices are back where they’d first been in October 2020. Hurricane Katrina, which wiped out a portion of the city in August 2005, coincided with the beginning of the housing bust, and so we left this area blank.
| San Francisco, City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -15.2% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 237% |
Prices are now back to where they had first been in mid-2018. That was over six years ago:
| Washington D.C., City, Single-Family Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -8.8% | -0.2% | -2.2% | 288% |
Back to December 2020.
The biggest cities with the biggest price declines of condos and co-ops.
| Austin, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -21.0% | -0.6% | -6.1% | 124.8% |
OK, this is moving pretty fast, not very downward sticky.
| Oakland, City, Condo Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -18.6% | -0.5% | -7.1% | 186.1% |
Back to 2016.
| San Francisco, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -14.6% | 0.1% | -1.5% | 144% |
Back to April 2015. Condo prices had doubled in the four years between 2012 and 2016. But the sky is not the limit, not even in San Francisco. In the City of San Francisco, condo sales are the majority of the market.
| Detroit, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Sep 2021 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -13.1% | -0.6% | -3.8% | 273.7% |
In the process of revisiting 2018.
| New York City Condo Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -12.7% | 0.8% | 3.1% | 219% |
Got a little bit of excitement going on in here. Maybe the huge stock market rally, the surge in bond and leveraged loan deals, and all the other things that produce huge bonuses for Wall Street workers.
| New Orleans, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -11.7% | 0.1% | -7.0% | 101.6% |
| Seattle, City Condo Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -9.5% | -0.1% | -1.6% | 148.4% |
Back to November 2017.
| Portland, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -9.0% | -0.2% | -4.0% | 119% |
Back to 2016.
| Tampa, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -8.8% | -0.6% | -6.1% | 301.0% |
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The post The Big Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Houses or Condos from their Peaks: From -9% to -21% appeared first on Energy News Beat.
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