Daily Energy Standup Episode #296 – Global Gas Dynamics, Speed Limits, and Soaring costs exposed

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Daily Standup Top Stories

Energy Bills Set to Soar as Report Finds Almost All Major Studies on Net Zero Grossly Underestimate Cost

New California Bill Would Equip Cars With Technology That Monitors Drivers, Physically Stop Them From Speeding

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro
01:26 – Energy Bills Set to Soar as Report Finds Almost All Major Studies on Net Zero Grossly Underestimate Cost
04:40 – New California Bill Would Equip Cars With Technology That Monitors Drivers, Physically Stop Them From Speeding
07:18 – Gas-Addicted Europe Trades One Energy Risk for Another – The US is not reliable
11:27 – U.S. Sanctions Strand 10 Million Barrels of Russian Crude For Weeks
14:00 – Markets Update
18:59 – Outro

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:14] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome in to the Monday, January 29th, 2024 edition of the Daily Energy News Beat standup. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, energy bills set to soar as report finds almost all major studies on net zero grossly under estimate cost. Next up new California bill would equip cars with technology that monitors drivers physically stopping them from speeding. Yikes. That’s. It’s not a joke, people. Next up on the menu. This goes right along with the theme for the day. Gas addicted Europe trades one energy risk for another. And trust us, the US is not reliable. This is, the LNG consolidation that we we heard about on Friday. And then finally, U.S. sanctions strands 10 million barrels of Russian crude for weeks. Stool. Then toss it over to me. I will quickly cover what happened in oil and gas finance. We did get rig counts on Friday, and we saw oil settle at the highest, in nearly eight, eight weeks. So absolutely strong, news there. And then we will let you guys get out of here and start your day. As always, I’m Michael Tanner, joined by Stuart Turley. Where do you want to start? [00:01:23][68.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:24] Say, let’s start with our buddies over there. On the energy bills set to soar as report finds almost all major studies on net zero grossly underestimate cost. Michael, this is a really, really interesting story. And it is by the Royal Society is a direct quote in here. This is out of the UK. The Royal Society, for example, assumes that the cost almost everything will have an efficiency will soar. It’s not that impossible, but imprudent. Let me read you some of the numbers. I’m just going to read these bullet points. Michael. The assumptions 60% reduction in offshore wind capital cost 70% reduction in offshore wind operating costs 50%. Increase in offshore wind output, 30% in reduction in solar CapEx, 70% in solar Opic, 90% reduction in Electrolyzer CapEx, 45% in Electrolyzer efficiency, 60% in reciprocating engine compared to 55% in reciprocating engine efficiency. This is. [00:02:42][77.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:43] Bull. [00:02:43][0.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:44] Hockey. I mean, I the the whole Royal Society. Was they in hail on this report? I’ve got the link in here for everybody to download the report. [00:02:56][12.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:57] But what I really want to know is did the the IEA come up with these assumptions because these assumptions are out of nowhere. I mean you’re talking about oh it’s going to be the assumptions are basically cheaper to build, cheaper to. [00:03:09][12.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:09] Operate, more. [00:03:10][0.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:11] Electricity output. I mean, in what world does that happen? Yes, technology gets bigger over time. We do bring down the cost of things, but we’re not even. You’re talking about this. Are you talking about inflation? I mean, you think about the world we’re in right now. It actually is getting more expensive to drill and expensive to outlay all of this capital stuff. [00:03:29][18.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:29] And we’ve had billions lost in dollars. I mean, Siemens has lost several billion. And there are wind farms that are not being bid on right now. The, U.S. government went out and put the stuff on the East Coast, and nobody bid on it, any of it. You can’t make any money now on offshore wind anyway. [00:03:54][24.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:55] Yeah. I mean, offshore wind is probably holding up the best under the circumstances. Solar is what’s really getting crushed. [00:04:02][7.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:03] Solar. I’m going to I’m going to disagree with you, my young padawan. And that is so we’re has a little bit more legs because it does not have the moving part. Good wind. Actually, eight years is a number, and I mean eight years. You got to walk away from these things in eight years. [00:04:22][19.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:22] Yeah, I’ve done an offshore wind. I’m with an onshore wind. [00:04:25][3.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:26] I’m talking offshore wind is now I’m my numbers are now coming in lower than eight. Anybody that says they’re going to last 30 years. [00:04:34][8.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:36] As do say check the models. What’s next. What’s going on. Our favorite state. [00:04:39][3.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:40] New California Bill, would equip cars with technology that monitors driver physically stopping them from speeding. Oh, this is worse than my wife. I hate driving with my wife. You’re going by my morning? No, this is a wife right over your back shoulders, Senator. California Senator Scott Wiener. He said Wiener, introduced a bill that would mandate the installation of the speed limit on. All vehicles. This is how Leary is. Quote unquote. There’s no reason why people should routinely be allowed to drive more than ten miles per hour. Wiener said. Wiener told the Los Angeles Times, you can want whatever you want, but that doesn’t mean you’re allowed to do it. Or what about printing money? If the fed can print money in the government, why am I paying taxes? [00:05:39][58.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:40] I think it goes back to first. I’m just inside baseball, folks. I tried to shoot this segment twice so we could avoid that stupid Scott Wiener joke, but we we went ahead and slipped it in there anyway, so. Okay. That’s fine. So take two here. Here’s what I think. This goes back to Big Brother. You know, how involved do you want the government to be in your day to day decisions? Yes. It’s illegal to go over the speed limit. But as we always talk about this slippery, slippery slope, going back to what they did with the Patriot Act, what would the Patriot designed to do? Find, quote unquote, terrorists? But what did it do? Collect mass surveillance on Americans for who knows what they used it for? We’ll never know what they used our data for. [00:06:23][42.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:24] Guess what they used? It was CBS, and they have been collecting all of your prescription drug. Yes. Information. [00:06:32][8.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:33] That’s my bad, is. [00:06:34][0.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:34] What they did. [00:06:35][0.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:35] It’s never what’s on the face. Second order thinking here. We talk a lot about this on the show. This is not about they don’t want you to go more than ten miles an hour. This is. Look at the hand over here. But really, now what we do is access to all of your data, all of your cars. And guess what? Now, as you said couple weeks ago on the show, we’re just going to drive you straight to the car, to the police station to just throw you in jail, dude. [00:07:00][24.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:00] And they’re going to lock the cars. They’re going to turn the heat on, play rap, and then throw you in jail. Let’s go to the next one. Michael and I won’t do that, joke again. But we’ll. [00:07:13][12.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:13] Get this one on the second try. Hopefully the second or third try. [00:07:15][2.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:16] Guessing big that you’re a trade. One energy risk for another. The U.S. is not reliable. Michael. I would not do business with the U.S.. I would not rely on the U.S.. We are worthless. Friday, the Biden administration got in a war with Governor Abbott. He went out in, this started out the other day. He, Thursday, I believe it was he put a delay on a very large, LNG thing going. [00:07:49][32.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:49] On. Well, he hauled well, this is key. What did he do on Friday? [00:07:52][2.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:52] He halted LNG exports and. [00:07:56][3.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:57] Well, new LNG exports until they can determine some new EPA regulations. Again, this is it’s it’s pretty crazy. Existing LNG facilities are good, but new permits for new facilities specifically that what’s crazy is we just saw a Chesapeake Southwestern merger. What was the big selling point of that merger? Massive new LNG export capacity. Oh, what? It would have been nice to know that four weeks ago before that merger took place. Whoa. [00:08:28][31.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:30] I’ll tell you what, I absolutely disgusting. The world is relying on our global gas. On energy news. Me, I now have the global energy monitor. You have to kind of take a look at this with a grain of salt. Natural gas has 4118 projects going on. Let me get rid of the pipelines. There are now 1251 LNG exports and terminals going on. Let’s get rid of the terminals. And then I’m going to go ahead and tell you, operating and under construction, there are 206 under construction. There are 43 LNG export terminals under construction. Let’s go under imports. Under construction. There are 64 LNG imports under construction around the world. Unbelievable. They need this natural, this LNG. The only reason we are able to it is the largest export that we’re having. If you owe $34 trillion on your debt, you got to have some export. This man is breaking the economy, ruining us as a part. Here’s a quote out of it. U.S LNG continues to be the cornerstone of Europe’s supply and diversification strategy, said Leslie Paul de Guzman, head of research and marketing at Mag. The Biden decision sends. A real message regarding solidarity and the reliability of its supply and medium to long term. This is partially crucial at a particularly crucial juncture, where supplies from Russia and other ships can be mired in unpredictability. This goes along with one of our others in the next story here, Michael. Russia is the winner out of this. Yeah, the car is there. [00:10:35][125.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:36] If you don’t mind pulling up that second image from this article, U.S. LNG is increasingly replacing gas from Russia. Look at that share of gas supplies that are from the EU that are coming from the United States. It’s absolutely spiked. We were that black bar down there. Absolutely. Spike in Russia has contracted almost threefold since quarter one, 2021. [00:10:58][22.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:59] On a on this article, Michael, I’m going to embed the video of all the graphs and all the charts that I did in preparation for this article. People will be able to see everything I just said, and it’s in the video in this hour. So that’ll be up here in the June. [00:11:15][16.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:16] Yeah. No. Absolutely. All right. What do we got next year. [00:11:18][2.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:19] Along the same lines. And the great Irene Islam as always said sanctions don’t work as intended. This article is titled sanctions strand 10 million barrels of Russian crude for wheat. The Biden administration is absolutely horrific. The 10 million barrels carried by 14 tankers are of the school variety out of a sunken one, and remain unsold due to Western sanctions. That amount represents 45 days of soaking one production at its average rate of 220,000 barrels per day. This is going to go to the dirt fleet very quickly, and it’s going to go out, and Russia is still going to make money on it. This is going to sit here for a little while, but it again spreads the hatred for the United State. It’s the listen to this one. The Kiev School of Economics estimated in December they would bring $178 billion from oil sales in 2023. Russia is doing quite well, by the way. [00:12:27][67.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:27] Yeah. And if anyone’s going to be pretty, if anyone’s going to be believable on what Russia is going to do, I’m going to trust the Kiev School of Economics. They’re they’re right there in the source. If anyone’s got more info than them, I’d be hard pressed to find it again, not to beat the dead horse. Sanctions don’t work, and it’s proven that if you only think first order effects on sanctions, they don’t work. Who’s calling? [00:12:50][23.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:51] Putin? Hang on a second. Oh, yeah. No. Hey, I my my theories are correct, and no, they are validated. Thank you, sir. Thank you, Mr. Putin. Say it. [00:13:02][10.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:04] Mr.. [00:13:04][0.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:05] Mr.. President putin, whatever. Czar. Putin. [00:13:09][3.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:11] Best BFFs. [00:13:12][0.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:13] No hate. No, I don’t want the, CIA after my car. Here you go, dude. [00:13:18][5.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:19] After you. They’re already there. All right, well, we’ll go ahead and pay the bills here. We’ll go ahead. And like I said, pay the bills here real quick. As always, guys, the news and analysis you just here, is brought to you by the world’s greatest website, Energy News Beat.com. Go ahead and click the link below for all the descriptions to the time stamps and news articles in this show. Stu and the team do an absolutely tremendous job keeping this website up to speed with everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes through the energy business. Check out our Deal Spotlight. Available ad deal. Spotlight. On energy news. Beat just search for. Go ahead and search for dashboard.energynewb eat.com our data news combo product really pushing that hard this quarter. We appreciate all the feedback from that. [00:14:00][41.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:00] But let’s go ahead and dive into finance guys. Friday we had mean markets were fairly flat. We saw the S&P 500 only up only down about a 10th of a percentage point. Nasdaq down about 5/10 of a percentage point. U.S. yields both a 30 down a quarter of a percentage point. US ten year yields actually up about a half a percentage point. dollar index stays fairly flat, only down about 0.01 percentage points. We did see Bitcoin rise slightly even though it ended the day down. It rose on the week 41 7700. So sitting pretty on Bitcoin there crude oils where we saw probably our biggest moves relative to the day we were up about three three percentage points. 7801 is where it it finished. We looked at trade up at about 7823 when the markets open here a little later this afternoon. Brant oil above $83.83 59 I mean and really Stu, what drove that eight week high was mainly off a few things. One, we we’ve got continued attacks on oil tankers in the Red sea. I read that Trafigura, oil shipping was was the latest captive, of this Hootie attack. But I think really where a lot of this positive news. Come from. Was there some economic data from the United States, specifically inflation and unemployment, that they that are keen to show sort of faster than expected growth? We did see China come out and boost another round of stimulus. I mean, we know how that works out in the long run. Stimulus never worked. But in the short run it works. I mean, that’s the argument for stimulus, is that in the short 3 to 6 month window, it can work. We’ve seen that with the stock market. We saw that early on. You know, you know, through the from the Obama administration into the Trump administration. Both of those guys understood. If we can keep interest rates low, if we can keep the money flowing, we can keep the economy. And when I mean the economy, the S&P 500 propped up because the S&P 500 is the majority of the liquid wealth in America right now. You’re talking about pensions. You’re talking about, retirement accounts. If you if anyone has a retirement account outside, you know, 401 K, that 401 K is tied most likely to the S&P 500, maybe more. So when when you talk about trying to keep this train going, you know, the more stimulus you can have, the better. I think a lot of the Chinese demand numbers have been soured recently. So this new round of stimulus, hopefully, continues to drive demand. And that’s partly why what we’re seeing, with oil prices, we did see natural gas spike $2.71. That’s about 6% up from the day, mainly off the back of some colder than predicted weather as we roll into the first week of February. The only other thing we saw on Friday was rig counts. Us adds one rig week over week 621. That’s up again. Just one from last week 620. Canada saw an increase of seven rigs, 230, and internationally we saw a drop week over week of about 23 rigs at 955. Busy, busy week Stu. We got a lot coming up here. Super excited for some of the stuff we’ve got. But what should people be worried about this week? [00:17:00][179.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:00] Oh, I’ll tell you. It’s going to be, entertaining. I’d like to give a shout out to the truckers and farmers, that are going on around the world and protesting the over controls. You know, they heard that they were going to get controls on their tractor so they couldn’t, you know, protest. But if you are a trucker, get a very day bag. So the the they will not track you because, they may be jailing everybody on that big convoy signaling, through Texas. So, it just like January 6th, you want to sit in a jail? [00:17:36][35.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:37] Yeah. There are, you know, we’re talking January 6th grade. [00:17:40][3.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:42] Hey, dude. All I’m saying is they attacked everybody that I know very sick. And they let. [00:17:48][6.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:48] This one go on the first cut. Just giving you a hard time. No, we appreciate it, guys. We’re super excited for nape. Coming up. That’s February 7th through the ninth. We really excited. We got a lot of live podcasts there. Rumor has it we’ve got a big guest, George Bush. I think we can announce that. Is that a party does. [00:18:06][18.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:07] Yes. [00:18:07][0.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:08] And so we’re going to be able to talk to them. I think David Blackmon is going to be talking with him. That’ll be awesome. If you’re in town check us out. Will be at Booth 1957. And it’s it’s going to be a great time. [00:18:18][10.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:18] Yeah, we got Steve Reese, we got, Jay Young, and there. [00:18:22][3.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:23] We go, Rhett Bennett from Black Mountain. [00:18:24][1.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:25] Oh, love. I can’t wait. That’s going to be a lot of fun. We also have several other executives from, Reese Consulting. We have, Sharon Mann. She is the CEO of the I, thing. We have several others that are. [00:18:42][17.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:42] He’s the CEO of AI. So watch out, guys. Be careful. It’s. She’ll get you. [00:18:45][3.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:46] In con technology if you want to implement AI. Hers is the firm. She handles the big dogs around. Yeah. [00:18:54][8.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:55] Absolutely. We love good. We love Sharon over at Nccn. But with that guys we’re super excited. We’ll let you get out of here. Start your Monday. You got a great week guys I know you probably got some meetings you don’t want to attend. Spare yourself. Listen to the show. You’ll make it through and you’ll survive. And we’ll see you on Tuesday guys. For Stuart Turley, I’m Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow. [00:18:55][0.0][1082.4]

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