[[{“value”:”
Daily Standup Top Stories
What’s Next for Oil? Analysts Weigh In After Iran’s Attack
Oil futures were barely moved by Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel, with traders attributing the lackluster price action to the notion that the strike was well-flagged beforehand, and expectations that the conflict will remain contained in […]
Israeli War Cabinet Vows Response to Iran as Oil Prices Cool Down
Israel convened its war cabinet on Monday morning, vowing a response to what is being described as a direct attack on Israel, despite various reports suggesting that Iran coordinated its missile barrage with Washington and […]
BP Cuts Jobs as Supermajor Scales Back EV Charging Unit
BP has cut over a tenth of its workforce in its EV charging business, BP Pulse, as the supermajor is downsizing the division and retreating from several countries to focus on just four key markets, […]
Tesla lays off more than 10% of staff globally as sales fall
BERLIN, April 15 (Reuters) – Tesla (TSLA.O), told staff it is laying off more than 10% of its global workforce, an internal memo seen by Reuters on Monday shows, as it grapples with falling sales […]
Power grids are facing more demand than ever. Policy needs to catch up.
Todd Snitchler is the president and CEO of the Electric Power Supply Association, which represents U.S. competitive power suppliers. For the first time in decades, power demand is growing rapidly across nearly every part of the country […]
Turkish Parliament to consider bill on sale of LNG as part of gas hub creation
Deputies of the Turkish Parliament, after a month and a half break caused by local elections, will resume legislative activity on April 16. One of the important documents that they will consider is a bill […]
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
01:52 – What’s Next for Oil? Analysts Weigh In After Iran’s Attack
06:11 – Israeli War Cabinet Vows Response to Iran as Oil Prices Cool Down
07:52 – BP Cuts Jobs as Supermajor Scales Back EV Charging Unit
09:33 – Tesla lays off more than 10% of staff globally as sales fall
11:16 – Power grids are facing more demand than ever. Policy needs to catch up.
14:49 – Turkish Parliament to consider bill on sale of LNG as part of gas hub creation
18:47 – Outro
Follow Stuart On LinkedIn and Twitter
Follow Michael On LinkedIn and Twitter
– Get in Contact With The Show –
Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Stuart Turley: [00:00:14] Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Energy News Beat podcast. Today is the daily stand up for, March 16th. Buckle up and get ready for some serious fun. What is next for oil analyst way in, in after, Iran’s, attack. I got some more things for that. Israeli war cabinet vows response to Iran as oil prices do. Cool down. Is this temporary? Well, we’re going to have a little discussion about it. Let’s switch, corners here to a little bit of EV. BP cuts, as super major scales back EV charging unit. Anyway, didn’t even realize they had that unit. Tesla lays off more than 10% of the staff globally as sales fall. People are just not really, fired up about buying their EVs right now. Power grids are facing more demand than ever. Policy needs to catch up. I thought this was a pretty cool, story from Todd Schmidt. Schnitzler, from the CEO of Electric Power Supply Association. Then the last one is a little bit more of a, thought process type, geopolitical story from the Turkish parliament to consider bill on of sale of LNG as part of the gas hub creation. Got a map? There’s some things in this little nugget here that are not in the story. So hang on, let’s get busy. [00:01:52][97.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:01:52] What’s next for oil analyst? Weigh in on our effort. After the attack, I’m going to go through about 4 or 5 different really key analysts and their, prediction. What is possible? $100 is possible from Citigroup, quote unquote. What is not priced into the current market, in our view, is potential continuation of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel, which we estimate could see prices trade up well above 100 barrels per day, depending on the nature of the events. And so let’s go to Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs risk premium. They this is a quote unquote. We estimate that the price oil prices already reflect a 5 to $10 barrel risk premium from downside risk to supply before the weekend attacks. Goldman Sachs said analysts including Dan strumming, said to note potential Israeli response to. Iran’s attack is highly uncertain and will likely determine the extent of the threat to the oil supply. So you can see how this is kind of formulating in lots of great stuff right here. Watch for possible response from ICG. They’re saying that Iran has been signaling that this was it. The next story that I’m about to talk about kind of says, oh yeah, it’s not. So and then we can go to another group. IAG Group says it’s already priced in. RBC says to the shadows in response. This is a quote. In such a scenario, we think the risk to oil is not insignificant given the Iranian seizure of the vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. But it’s predicted that the missile and drone attacks could if Israel stands down or carries out a d-minus response, it seems that Iran might very well take the opportunity to return this war to the shadows. That means, attacking through, foreign, countries or third parties. Here’s where. And Miss producer, if you could bring this up forward, the graphic, this is a graphic, showing, it’s the Energy Information Administration, inner international energy statistics, and the world’s biggest oil producers in 2023. Take a look at this. United States is 12.9%. Then you have, Canada at 4.6, Russia at 10.1, Saudi Arabia at 9.7. Now here’s part of the reason the Saudis at 9.7, they could blow this number out of the water for the U.S., but they are holding back because of their leadership in OPEC, and they don’t really need to. Iraq critical .4. 3 million barrels per day. That’s a lot. And if you take 4.3 million barrels a day off the market, if Israel responds and as Lindsey Graham has said he wants to do, if there was a way to hit the Iranian oil fields and you take a significant portion of that. I think it’s going to be all bets on, off on oil because it could take quite a while. Quite a ways to build that up. China is 4.2, but they’re importing a ton. Brazil is 3.4. And they’re not ready to, expand back out. So, the other is other countries, and I don’t know that they have the capacity to bring that forward. So, you take into consideration the war on oil from the Biden administration is another piece of this, puzzle. [00:06:11][258.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:11] This article is actually pretty interesting. It says Israeli war cabinet vows response to Iran as oil prices cool down. I found this pretty, interesting. There was, they shut up early Monday morning. But before paring gains, the markets considered easing of tensions and possible avoidance of war. But I, they did say they are going to respond. So, the war Cabinet on Monday morning, vowing a response to what is being described as a direct attack on Israel, even though, Marjorie Taylor Greene, I don’t know if this is verified or not, but she did say that the Biden administration, admit, it is, being published in several different areas that Joe Biden gave the Iranians permission. Don’t know. Sure is weird. It’s coming up on a lot of different places. So if you have, Marjorie Taylor Greene, which she could either be right or wrong, then you have all the other sources, right or wrong. If Joe Biden did give permission to Iran and then, he is telling, Israel to stand down. This is really some big news. And so the key is, is Israel going to go ahead with this? I don’t know, but everybody’s thinking about it. [00:07:52][100.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:52] Let’s go ahead and go to BP. Cuts jobs as super major scales bag EV charging unit. You know, Michael and I have really talked about BP a lot. Especially with getting a new, CEO. And, BP has cut over a 10th of its workforce in EV charging business. BP pauses the super major, downsizing the division and retreating from several countries to focus on four key markets just for key markets. I thought it was pretty interesting. I was really not paying attention to the BP, EV, charging business. So it suffered early this decade when the company announced its net zero strategy and it says, BP said in February it would be producing more oil and gas for longer and increase ment and increased investment in the oil and gas projects, and an average of up to 1 billion a year increase, until 2030. It in and again, this falls right into the consumer market is pushing back on the EVs, quote unquote, auction class, says we thought we’d be doing fleets as we started this. It actually drifted more towards individual as opposed to fleets. Big difference in, setting up chargers for a fleet as opposed to individuals following along this EV trouble. [00:09:33][100.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:09:33] Tesla lays off more than 10% of their global staff. This is pretty amazing. When you take a look at, Tesla’s senior manager, drew, by, by Longino. I hope I didn’t butcher his name too bad. In charge of battery development. And, Rohan Patel, vice president of public policy, were both announced their exits from X. So this is not just an a lightweight, cutting out. They’re also taking part of the managers out. Here’s a quote. Musk said. As we prepare the company for our next phase of growth, it’s extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity. As part of the effort, we have done a thorough review of the organization and made the difficult decision to reduce our headcount. I applaud. I want this going on record. I applaud, Elon Musk, especially for everything that he’s doing with, space X. I just really think that, Tesla is going to survive very nicely with good management. As Michael and I have always said, good management, good numbers. And he’s going to be around people will be buying Tesla’s. The other side of this coin is also Tesla is creating a very large plant in India. And I applaud that because there will be a, market in, India. For those that can afford it, why not get the best of the breed? [00:11:15][101.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:16] So let’s go over here to the power grids. Power grids are facing more demand than ever. Policy needs to catch up. This one was pretty wild from Todd Fletcher. President, CEO, The Electrical Power Supply Association, which represents the U.S competitive power suppliers. This is just crazy, he says in the article. Power demand is growing rapidly across every part of the country due to a host of factors. Number one data center. Number two reshoring of manufacturing. Number three growing electrification and the rapidly growing power demands of artificial intelligence are all contributors. I’ll tell you what. This is amazing what the power demand is going to be. The balancing authorities that we have on the grid are working overtime. And adding power right now is, unbelievable. And and in trying to add, renewable energy, which is quote unquote renewable, it’s actually just additional solar and wind without it. And here is a quote in the article. It’s time for a reality check. The energy transition is a misnomer. The U.S. requires an energy expansion that incorporates every tool we have at our disposal to deliver more power at lower emissions, both reliable and cost effectively. I agree with his statement. Let’s use all forms of energy. But if you cannot meet market prices and you you have to have a dead on. Apples to apples, oranges to oranges. Comparison of pricing. Nobody is pricing in land reclamation or taking down the wind farms at the end of their life cycles, and then they’re abandoned. Then land owners are now responsible for the reclamation and turning this back to pristine environments. And the oil and gas industry is responsible for putting up barns for doing that. Have they always done a great job? No, but there is a decent, amount of regulatory issues and liabilities that are there so that you can go ahead and enforce the orphan well assist system still has a long way to go. But I’ll tell you, he also brings up a great point. We need to, we need policies that encourage more of everything, including a natural gas. We need stronger market signals that prioritize, reliability and ensure the investments that provide or profitable. Finally, we need policies that acknowledge the necessity of resilient energy infrastructure and the enormous cost that will have, and that inaction will have for the American consumers. And then he brings up in here regulatory problems. We are spending years in countless amount of additional money on the regulatory process for wind, solar or nuclear and all of it. We’ve got to save money on the regulatory process, even if, renewables, as I say, wind, solar. [00:14:48][212.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:49] Let’s go to the next article. This article is really one to watch for. This article does not go into some of the hidden geopolitical things that are about LNG in a, I’m going to start with the first paragraph here. Deputies of the, Turkish parliament after a month. And a half. A break caused by local elections will resume their legislative activity on April 16th. One of the most important documents they will consider is a bill allowing the sale of natural gas imported by the Republic in liquefied form. LNG, in a source in a parliamentary circles told to assess, quote, the approval of the bill will be one of the most important steps to create and legislative flame, framework to transform Turkey into an international gas trading center. Holy smokes. This is going to have about 3 or 4 orders of magnitude of impact. While it may slide by a lot, the mainstream media, it may slide by a lot. I guarantee you we’re going to be looking at energy news. Be not co at this, miss producer, if you could bring up the map, this is a map of, the pretty much the Middle East, Mediterranean and other areas. You can see Turkey dead center in, in the center, and there are pipelines rolling through just regular, gas pipelines and oil pipelines. And then if you look at the center on, the one side of it, on the left hand side of Turkey, there’s a numeral number two that is an LNG import facility. What that means is, you see, the gas can go flow up to Bulgaria. It can flow all the way down into Syria. It can flow all the way over. And and then it can actually hit in the southern part and roll over to Greece. Greece will have another connecting point and be able to come in from the Cyprus, which is number ten, which is an import facility as well. And if you import from it, you can export from it. And as you come into Israel and Egypt, Egypt is now a mix between importing and exporting. Depending on the amount of natural gas coming from the Leviathan field in the Mediterranean, this is a very complicated issue. In a second order of magnitude, is sanctions being placed on any kind of, let’s say cutter, let’s say we play, the government, not we, but the government. The U.S government puts sanctions on Russia’s LNG. Here’s a loophole, because they could drop off LNG at Turkey and it would go into gas pipelines in there. So there are many ways that sanctions can be bypassed. Once LNG is now offloaded. LNG does not have the dirt fleet, such as or the Gray Fleet, however you want to, pronounce it. But Russia has increased their energy exports through LNG and through, oil using the Dart fleet, avoiding sanctions. This 1st May be a very large sanction, avoidance scheme, if you would. [00:18:46][237.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:18:47] So, buckle up and, as always, like, subscribe, share. We’ve got some wonderful things coming around the corner. Just released Irina Islav and, also have some other great podcasts coming up every Monday morning. Please join me with David Blackman, Irina Salaam and Tammy Nemeth on the Energy Realities live on our YouTube, live on, I believe Tammy’s, ex, David Blackman’s ex and David Blackman’s, LinkedIn. So also subscribe at the EnergyNewsbeeat.substack.com. Reach out in if you’re an energy expert in anything from geo political, renewables, nuclear, wind, solar, storage. I want to talk to you and remember, this is about eliminating energy poverty. Thank you so much. And I hope you have an absolutely fantastic today. And, hug somebody, hug your dog, hug, hug your neighbor. Hey, have a great one. [00:18:47][0.0][1108.1]
– Get in Contact With The Show –
The post Gas, oil and geopolitical updates appeared first on Energy News Beat.
“}]]
Energy News Beat